What next in a conflict steeped in blood and broken promises?

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One question faced the Middle East last night in the wake of another bout of Israeli assassinations, and another suicidal guerrilla attack on Israeli civilians: What next?

Ariel Sharon is no nearer to fulfiling his promise to Israelis to bring security and peace than he was when he was elected nearly one year ago.

And Yasser Arafat is no nearer fulfiling his promise to the 3.2 million frustrated and angry Palestinians of the occupied territories – not to mention the refugees abroad and the Palestinian diaspora - to deliver a state, or to the international community to try to restore calm.

The international media continues to prattle about Oslo and peace-making. But the story gets worse by the day. Suspicions abound in the Arab world - and beyond - that peace has never been Mr Sharon's true goal, but that his main aim is stealthily to consolidate control over the occupied territories by provoking violence, which will ultimately allow him to snuff out the Palestinian claims to statehood for good.

The future of Mr Arafat occupies centre-stage. For six weeks, Mr Sharon has held him under virtual house arrest by stationing tanks within 30 yards of his headquarters in Ramallah.

The Israeli premier has exploited every Palestinian attack - some of which have been utterly sickening - to raise the stakes. The international community no longer utters a whisper when he attacks Palestinian towns with F-16 war planes, or assassinates suspects, or invades areas given to the Palestinians under Oslo - an initiative Ariel Sharon has always opposed.

Better still, from Mr Sharon's viewpoint, Mr Arafat has lost most of his friends. Most of the main players in the international community, particularly the Americans, have run out of patience with his failure to administer their inadequate prescriptions. Weighed down by age and repeated mistakes, he is trapped, and alone.

And yet Mr Sharon's immediate choices are now limited. "Imprisoning" Mr Arafat has not ended Palestinian attacks. What should he do next? If the Israelis assassinate him, they face an eruption from the Arab world.

If they throw him out, he could become an even more serious thorn in Israel's side, an exile with an endless campaign to garner funds and publicity. If they try to engineer his downfall from within - exploiting the genuine anger among a large spectrum of Palestinians - they could end up with a more radical opponent. If any suggestion emerges his replacement is favoured by Israel, he or she is certain to be assassinated as a stooge.