Fudge expected as Bush and Blair seek UN approval for war

The British and American strategy in the UN Security Council will be to secure the adoption of a resolution that sends a unanimous message to Iraq: either readmit the UN weapons inspectors or face the prospect of military force.

Sir John Weston, the former British ambassador to the UN, said yesterday: "The key is a resolution that can be pointed to as renewing the authorisation for muscular action against the Iraqis."

But to achieve a consensus that would let Britain and America claim international backing for military action, the coming negotiations on a resolution are likely to produce a fudge. The other permanent members of the 15-member council – France, Russia and China – have strongly opposed the use of force against Iraq in the past and can block a resolution by using their veto.

While the council members will unanimously back a new call for the immediate unconditional return of the UN weapons inspectors, who have been barred from Iraq for almost four years, the council's fault lines run deep on the need for military enforcement.

The council's permanent members have been deeply divided since Operation Desert Fox – unilaterally action by America and Britain without UN approval – was launched to punish Iraq in 1998 after the pull-out of the UN experts trying to account for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

Diplomats agree the council's authority would be undermined if its next resolution on Iraq was voted down or drew more than two abstentions – probably from China and Syria, a non-permanent member. To be adopted, hence becoming international law, a resolution needs nine positive votes.

British and US diplomats are wary of the French position on Iraq and the latest French proposal for a two-step process is being interpreted in some quarters as a delaying tactic.

Jacques Chirac, the French President, has refused to say whether he would vote in favour of military action in a second resolution if Iraq refused an order to admit the inspectors enshrined in a first resolution. France poses more of a problem to Britain and the US than Russia, which many believe can be "bought off" by the Bush administration, or China, which has traditionally abstained on Iraqi resolutions.

"The Americans won't have any truck with the classic French manoeuvring," a diplomat said yesterday. "If there was a second resolution, there would be a tremendous heave-ho in the council on that."

Britain and America are expected to circulate a draft resolution setting a deadline for Iraqi compliance and authorising follow-up action. But by the time the resolution came to the vote, to keep the Russians and French on board, no military action would be likely to be spelt out.