Iraqi Kurds terrified by prospect of Turkish invasion

Kurdish leaders warned Turkish soldiers yesterday against crossing Iraq's northern border as the first step in a plan to end the de facto independence enjoyed by Iraqi Kurdistan for 10 years.

"Any intervention under any circumstances will lead to clashes," Hoshyar Zebari, an influential Kurdish leader, said. "It will be bad for the reputations of the US and the UK to see two of their allies – the Turks and the Kurds – at each other's throats."

The Turkish parliament is poised to vote on an agreement that would allow thousands of American troops to be deployed in Turkey to spearhead the northern front against Saddam Hussein. But Turkey announced over the weekend that it would launch its own invasion, with the Kurds rather than Saddam Hussein as the target.

"Turkey is adamant that it wants a foothold inside Iraq," said a Kurdish leader privy to recent talks with Turkey. "Once they are in it will be very difficult to get them out." Washington, desperate for Turkish military co-operation, has not opposed the operation.

The Turkish army would occupy a long tract of territory inside the border of northern Kurdistan, setting a precedent for a further advance.

Mr Zebari said: "It would be a nightmare for us because the Turks could easily cut our communications with the outside world. Our people are terrified by the prospect."

A Turkish invasion, even if only partial, would cause turmoil in northern Iraq, and Kurdish leaders claim it would be resisted by local forces. Television pictures of Kurdish villagers in flight from the Turks, allied to America and Britain, would take the sheen off efforts by President Bush and Tony Blair to portray the war as a moral crusade.

Turkish generals and officials explained that the purpose of their advance was to prevent Kurdish refugees entering Turkey as they did in 1991. Since the justification for the incursion was humanitarian, not military, the troops would be under Turkish, not US, command.

Kurdish leaders see Turkey's humanitarian intentions as a smokescreen. One, who did not want to be named, said: "The Turks have four aims: they want to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish entity with de facto independence; ensure that the rebellion of the Turkish Kurds does not start again; protect the Turkomans in Iraq; and make sure we do not take Kirkuk or Mosul." The Kurds were shocked when Turkey first declared its intentions at a meeting in Ankara this month.

The Kurds reject the idea that a mass exodus of Kurdish refugees is more than an excuse. In 1991 the Kurds were frightened because the Iraqi army had gassed them in Halabja three years before. Today there is a well-organised Kurdish administration with an experienced army to defend them. The Iraqi army is very unlikely to advance north against the Kurds when it is under attack from America.

The Kurds have only limited leverage because Washington needs Turkey more than it needs them. America does not want the Kurdish forces to become involved in the war. It may, however, want them to help to persuade some of the key Arab tribes of northern Iraq to withdraw their support for President Saddam.

The Kurds are by far the strongest force in the Iraqi opposition. The Kurdistan Democratic Party, which controls western Kurdistan, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan under Jalal Talabani, which rules eastern Kurdistan, together have about 25,000 trained soldiers as well as militia forces. They rule four million people in an area the size of Switzerland.

Patrick Cockburn is visiting fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington