The dark horses of 1994

Some places are bound to generate news this year: South Africa, with its multi-racial election in April, Russia, former Yugoslavia, the US. But which countries will provide unexpected plot lines for the global soap opera this year? Independent writers focus on the possible flashpoints of 1994. Will this be the year when the last outposts of the Marxist empire - Cuba and North Korea - crumble into democracy or mayhem? Will desultory violence and seething resentments in Zaire erupt into a civil war? Will Iran's economy degenerate to the point of social unrest, even civil war? Will the post-unification economic crisis and crush of regional elections in Germany, culminating in a federal election in December, unseat Chancellor Kohl, boost the far right and scuttle the country's post-war consensus?

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