Backing Oats goes against the grain

racing: The Welsh National winner is promoted to Gold Cup favouritism without leaving his box Strange favourites for big races are supposed to arrive, appropriately enough, with the cuckoos in early spring, when a single piece of useful work is enough tosend an untried three-year-old to the top of the Derby lists. Examine William Hill's latest o dds for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, however, and you are left to wonder whether Kim Bailey was woken yesterday morning by a cuckoo outside his bedroom window.

Master Oats, Bailey's Welsh National winner, ascended to favouritism for the Cheltenham Gold Cup this weekend without leaving his box (which is a dubious sign at any time of the year). The logic, presumably, goes something like this.

Master Oats beat Earth Summit by 20 lengths with plenty in hand in the Welsh National at Newbury. Earth Summit beat Chatam in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock on Saturday, with both horses reproducing almost exactly their running at Newbury Chatam would have challenged Earth Summit for second in that race had he not fallen at the second-last). This implies that the Newbury form is solid, and with Earth Summit winning off an effective handicap mark of 151 on Saturday, Master Oats should perhaps be the highest-rated chaser in training. Therefore, he will win the Gold Cup. Get on.

This thought process - which is, admittedly, as robust as any which many punters use to make a selection - would have been all very well a couple of weeks ago, when Master Oats was a 16-1 chance for Cheltenham. As a 9-2 favourite, he deserves more rigorous analysis, and several points need to be made.

He is a thorough stayer who requires soft ground, a rarity in March these days, to show his best. Over three and a quarter miles against the best chasers in Europe, he would probably prefer it to be bottomless. And, most important of all, Master Oats must be one of the first horses to head the Gold Cup market without ever contesting a chase at Cheltenham.

This gap in his education should be addressed next weekend, when he is expected to line up beside Barton Bank in the Hall of Fame Chase. However, given that the two best performances of Master Oats's career - at Newbury, and in last year's relocated Greenall's Gold Cup at Kempton - have been recorded on pancake-flat tracks, only the brave or reckless will back him for the Festival's main event beforehand, even at Coral's more realistic odds of 6-1.

Master Oats is a good illustration of one of punting's golden rules. When the bookies offer us a new favourite, try to find three good reasons why he might not win. In most cases, you will quickly discover four or five.

Relkeel, though, might just be the exception which proves the rule. He displaced Large Action as the favourite for the Champion Hurdle and is 4-1 with most leading firms after a convincing dismissal of Flakey Dove, the current champion, at Haydock. Giving the mare 5lb, as he will be required to do at Cheltenham, Relkeel travelled smoothly under the conditions and quickened smartly after the last to record his ninth success in 10 outings over timber.

The "doubt count" numbers just two. The pace was poor on Saturday, which can always produce unreliable form, while Flakey Dove, though clearly beaten, would probably need further than two miles in such a slowly-run race, and was held up in her work last week by a bruised foot.

A fairer assessment of the champion's form should be possible after Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham, but punters who are sufficiently convinced by Relkeel on the weekend's evidence might still be wise to hold their bets. David Nicholson will now send the gelding straight to the Festival, and as other contenders go on trial for the Champion, Relkeel may edge out in the betting.

In particular, Large Action, Fortune And Fame or Montelado could muscle him out of favouritism within a week, with an authoritative display in the Irish Champion Hurdle. The contest, due to take place at Leopardstown yesterday, has been rescheduled for next Sunday, which might allow Large Action to take his chance if a reasonable surface seems likely.

If Oliver Sherwood's gelding crosses the water, the winner of the race would surely displace Relkeel as the Champion favourite. And the cuckoos could enjoy their winter holiday for another couple of months.

RICHARD EDMONDSON NAP: Grand Selection (Southwell 4.15)

NB: Chiliola (Southwell 3.15)