England forced to rely on fragile Pakistani morale

Today is not the first time during the 2003 World Cup that England's cricketers will be closely watching events in Zimbabwe. This afternoon, however, it will be for cricketing reasons that Nasser Hussain's side are glued to the television, because only when the result of Pool A's final match between Zimbabwe and Pakistan becomes clear will England know their destiny in the tournament.

England are favourites to go through to the next stage of the competition, but for several of Hussain's squad the outcome of this fixture will carry greater significance than qualification for the Super Sixes. A victory for Zimbabwe in Bulawayo or a win for Pakistan by the required margin will not just denote the end of England's involvement here in South Africa, it will signify the end of the line for a number of the squad.

There is already speculation that Hussain will stand down as one-day captain when England's interest in the competition is over and his retirement could coincide with a clear-out so that preparations can start for the next World Cup in four years' time. This is the amount of time which is required if England are to develop into a team that can consistently match Australia.

Alec Stewart, Andrew Caddick, Craig White, Nick Knight and Ronnie Irani will not be wearing the blue of England then and they will be hoping more than anyone that Pakistan achieve a narrow victory over Zimbabwe. Rain – and a subsequent abandonment – would prove disastrous for England, but history suggests that Pakistan, who have won 26 of their 29 one-day matches against today's opponents, will prevail.

However, England's faith in Pakistani morale perhaps suffered a blow yesterday, following a skirmish at practice between three of their players. No team in the world are as inconsistent or temperamental as Waqar Younis's and an incident involving Inzamam-ul-Haq, Younis Khan and Saeed Anwar suggests that they are not a happy bunch, following their poor show in the tournament.

The contretemps took place during a warm-up game of football. Inzamam and Younis squared up to each other after challenging for a ball. Saeed, who ran out Inzamam during Pakistan's defeat to India on Saturday, came over to defuse the situation only to be pushed to the ground by his team-mate.

In an effort to sort out the fracas, Richard Pybus, the Pakistan coach, abandoned the knock-about and took his squad to the dressing-room. After 20 minutes, 14 re-emerged and Inzamam was seen going back to the team hotel in a taxi. Attempting to play down the incident, the Pakistan captain, Waqar, said: "It is nothing new. We always have this problem when we play soccer."

His challenge now is to make his team show the same competitiveness in today's game. He is not alone. Stewart, a former Surrey team-mate of Waqar, was speaking for every England player and supporter when he said he hoped that Pakistan would put up a decent show. For England, who have remained in Port Elizabeth while they await their fate, following events will be a stressful experience.

"We are now relying big-time on Pakistan coming up with the goods," said Stewart, who is playing in his fourth World Cup. "I've never been in a position like this in something as big as the World Cup. Obviously we hope that Pakistan win but they don't win too well. A a lot depends on what Pakistan side turns up because they could easily win by the required rate or lose comfortably. I can't believe we will be sat around a television watching for seven hours. I hope not."

There is a view that these two sides have an unfair advantage over England because they know what they require to go through to the next round before going into today's match. Stewart agrees: "I believe that all the last round of games should be played on the same day. This happened in the last World Cup four years ago."

England could have made run-rates irrelevant if they had held their nerve and beaten Australia on Sunday, so it is difficult to have too much sympathy for their plight. That they failed was down to a combination of excellent Australian cricket and a lack of belief from England that they can finish off their opponents. Stewart, however, feels that the presence of Darren Gough would have made a difference.

"We have not got wicket-taking bowlers in the middle or the end of an innings," he said. "If the ball swings up front we have a good chance but when it is not doing a lot later in the innings we struggle to take wickets. We have not got a Shoaib Akhtar or Brett Lee and it is probably where Darren Gough is missed most."

HOW ENGLAND COULD MISS OUT

England are level with Zimbabwe on 12 points and either a wash-out or a victory for the tournament's co-hosts against Pakistan today would enable Zimbabwe to claim third place. If Pakistan win, that would set up a three-way tie, with every team having won the same amount of matches and also having beaten each other – the first two criteria for settling qualification.

England should still qualify providing Pakistan do not win by a large margin and claim a superior run-rate.

What is clear is that Pakistan must inflict a heavy defeat if they are to eclipse England's net run-rate and take the third qualifying spot. Here are examples of how England could miss out:

* Zimbabwe bat first and score 100: Pakistan need to score the runs in 10.5 overs.

* Zimbabwe bat first and score 150: Pakistan need to score the runs in 12.1 overs.

* Zimbabwe bat first and score 200: Pakistan need to get the runs in 13.2 overs.

* Zimbabwe bat first and score 250: Pakistan need to get the runs in 14.2 overs.

* Pakistan bat first and score 200: they need to dismiss Zimbabwe for 13 or less.

* Pakistan bat first and score 250, they need to dismiss Zimbabwe for 62 or less.

* Pakistan bat first and score 300: they need to dismiss Zimbabwe for 112 or less.

* Pakistan bat first and score 350: they need to dismiss Zimbabwe for 161 or less.