Stephen Brenkley: Will he, won't he? Sri Lanka sweat on magical Murali

Everything is different now. The moment last Wednesday when Muttiah Muralitharan fell awkwardly on his shoulder ensured that. The world's most lethal bowler is not definitely out of Sri Lanka's Test series against England, but he is not definitely in it. As the summer's first tourists landed at Heathrow this morning their best player was in Australia receiving specialist treatment and a prognosis.

In Colombo the signs were confused. It was as if the country were willing Murali to be fit but feared the worst. "We do not know what to expect," said Anura Tennekoon, chief executive of the Sri Lankan Cricket Board. "But we will have to do our best without him. A player like Murali is certain to be missed but the Sri Lankan team cannot rely on him and will not."

Whatever verdict is announced by Murali's medics in the next day or so it is a cast-iron certainty that the mood of the early summer has changed. The ruptured ligaments he suffered during his tumble (another reason for criticising insignificant one-day tournaments in Sharjah) are bound to affect his overall fitness and bowling action in the short term.

The good news was that it was his left shoulder, not the business one which, in conjunction with the right wrist, has created so much alarm among the cream of the world's best batsmen and downright chaos among lesser mortals.

Sri Lanka must calculate whether it is worth risking their most precious asset if he is not fully fit. True, there is a World Cup to consider less than a year hence but the forthcoming three Test matches and the one-day tournament which follow them have already captured the imagination of the Sri Lankan public. This is the first tour of England on which they have played more than one Test.

"It is a series we have waited for a very long time," said Tennekoon, who toured England with Sri Lanka in 1979 before they achieved Test status – and scored a century against Kent. "It is extremely important to us because England is the home of cricket. There is not a player in the country who would not wish to go on the tour.

"It is a pity it is in the early part of the summer. We would have preferred it when the weather is more settled later on but at last the English board has given us a chance to decide who is the best side over three games instead of having just a one-off match."

As in Colombo, so at Lord's, a case of mixed feelings about Muralitharan's potential absence. Doubtless, England's players would prefer to be pitted against him but would not mind too much if he failed to make it. They played him well in Sri Lanka last winter but he was bowling through the long-term effects of a debilitating groin injury.

The administrators are putting a brave face on it. Terry Blake, the ECB's commercial director, said: "My initial reaction is that he's probably not as big to the public as, say, Sachin Tendulkar. There must be some impact but Murali is not a player who we would focus our marketing on." This view was backed up by Stuart Robertson, the ECB's marketing manager. "Murali is a big player but there are England players we would hope people would come to see as well," he said. "The Sri Lankan community in this country numbers about 200,000 and we are working in conjunction with Sri Lankan business, their High Commission and the tourist board to promote this series.

"I can't deny that it will have serious competition, not least from the football World Cup, and we are going into this open-eyed and open-minded. Obviously, it would help if Murali was playing. You want the best players on show."

The off-spinner with a name whose exoticism is matched only by his bowling style expects to hear today or tomorrow about the extent of the damage to his shoulder. He clutched it in agony after slipping while fielding against Pakistan in the Sharjah final. The initial estimate was that he would be out for three months but this was then later revised to missing the First Test starting at Lord's on 16 May.

Sri Lanka have insisted on keeping him in their squad while ensuring he had the best possible advice in Australia. Smart speculation suggested that they were dwelling in hope rather than expectation. The reasons for that are clear. Sri Lanka have won nine consecutive Tests. Eight of those have been at home, some against weak opposition, in Bangladesh and Zimbabwe, but in the history of the game only Australia (16 successive wins) and West Indies (11) have a better record. England have managed no more than seven.

Murali's significance in this run is overwhelming. Of the 180 wickets Sri Lanka have taken during it, he has 83. In addition, the left-arm seamer, Chaminda Vaas, has 47, a combined total of 130 or 72 per cent.

Sri Lanka have announced 18 names for the Test matches and one-dayers and have some exciting batsmen on board. They have confirmed the selection of the 36-year-old Aravinda De Silva because of his experience in English conditions.

But one name counts above all, a claim justified by the example of the Sharjah match. When Murali left the field Pakistan not only hit the ball round the park but Sri Lanka's batting then collapsed and they lost by 217 runs. He is their talisman.

True, he may not have a dramatic effect on ticket sales – though all followers of cricket should pray for his participation and endeavour to see it – but his absence will be catastrophic for Sri Lanka's chances.