Stewart's legacy is mission impossible

View from Oz

Luck is the ever-present factor in any sporting contest simply because bad luck generally gets a mention in post-match dispatches. Losers are much more likely to mention the L word than winners. When winners are asked about luck, they remark, poker-faced, that "you make your own".

A month ago, the Australian touring party arrived in England having had a lot of bad luck in India. Unluckiest of all were Ricky Ponting and Shane Warne. Ponting's fearless, fleet-footed and flamboyant reputation was shredded by a rookie off-spinner named Harbhajan Singh; yet on the same pitches the tricks of the great Warne, arguably the most magical of all spinners, were exposed by the dashing batsmanship of V V S Laxman.

Such individual gloom, deepened by the series loss, offered Nasser Hussain's resurgent England an opportunity to make some telling psychological points in the lead-up to the Ashes contest. Enter bad luck: Hussain suffers a broken thumb, Graham Thorpe is injured, too.

This creates the perfect environment for England's selectors to make their own luck. They give the captaincy to Alec Stewart, who is aged 38 and a wicketkeeper, which is generally regarded as less than ideal for the leadership role, and whose win percentage from his previous stints as England's one-day captain is a meagre 35. A loser.

At the end of the one-day series whitewash, we in Australia saw television news footage of a grim-faced Stewart announcing that the losing experience might "scar" some of the young England players.

In the wider world, where counselling is the catchword, Stewart's honesty might be applauded, but in the rough, tough world of sport today such confessions have no place. They are simply concessions to the opposition.

Could you imagine Steve Waugh (aka The Ice Man), after the gruelling, losing experience his side endured in India, announcing that Ponting had been scarred by the mental anguish Singh had put him through?

From 11,000 miles away it's hard to understand why Stewart was given a licence to toss. Was there no other player in the one-day team more inspirational than Stewart and with enough cricket nous to apply the straightforward fielding grids and bowling patterns of the one-dimensional limited-overs game? If there is no captain-in-waiting, what does it say for the health of the English game? Hussain has to rebuild England's mental state for the Ashes series, which post-Stewart is a task bordering on the monumental.

Glenn McGrath, sans new ball seam up, nestled between the first two fingers and thumb of the right hand, is a moderate man, typical of Australian bush stock, and definitely not given to idle boasts. Yet England's one-day surrender prompted him to tip an Ashes whitewash, so we can now add feisty to fiery in his curriculum vitae. He knows the risk in the shortened modern tour: one Test comes so close upon the next that once there's a hint of trouble, disintegration can set in, fast. That's what happened to Australia in India.

Hussain has built a solid captaincy record in Tests, win percentage 42. It's easy to think of him as "another Mike Brearley", because his pure batting statistic is only lukewarm – average 30 compared with 38 when not captain – but his leadership skills have revived the winning fortunes of the team.

In his favour are the returns of, notably, Michael Atherton, Thorpe (calf permitting) and Craig White, less so the left-arm spin of Ashley Giles. Spin promises to be a spectator in this series, despite the dryness of the summer so far. This Ashes will be settled after a bloody battle between smarter, fitter fast bowlers and frail top-order batsmen.

McGrath is the main player. Any team hoping to beat Australia in a Test must first beat McGrath. But how? Sometimes Glenn tries too hard when he's under pressure, if frustrated by a rapid run-flow. Neither Atherton, a blunt instrument, nor Trescothick, rattled in the one-dayers, is likely to try to take McGrath out.

In any case, McGrath is more mature now, the most patient of fast bowlers, with an immaculate line from both sides of the wicket and, when he wants, he can move the ball a cat's whisker, or more, to create a wicket. He is a control freak. Steve Waugh builds the attack around McGrath. Brett Lee, raw and lightning fast, is willing but wayward. Jason Gillespie can frighten a batsman with a thunderbolt but is physically fragile. England's top order should expect a blitz; spectators should expect scenes reminiscent of Lillee and Thomson at their peak.

And, if the trio are not troublesome enough, tire or break down, Waugh can call upon Warne, England's torturer of old. This may be a bowling attack the equal of Bradman's 1948 side.

On the brink of the Ashes, Australia have won the psychological war. For England, to steal a line from The Bill, "it's all gone pear-shaped". Even the women went down by an innings in their First Test. If England lose as badly as McGrath hopes, it might not be far from the truth to say that the dead hand of Alec Stewart's captaincy can take a fair bit of the blame. And what if Hussain is injured again? Will the captain be Stewart, Test win percentage of 26?