Football: Fear of drop in time of upheaval: David McKinney looks at the prospects for the new season in Scotland

AN AIR of resignation rather than expectation has greeted the start of the new season in Scotland, with the realisation that it will take something special to prevent Rangers collecting their sixth successive championship title. And there is no little concern at the dawn of a campaign which will result in almost 50 per cent of the membership being relegated to accommodate a re-structuring of the league.

Sixteen clubs out of 38 will lose their status as Scotland prepares for four divisions of 10 clubs each, leaving a narrow margin of error for all but the top clubs in each division.

Top of them all are Rangers, the holders of the domestic trophies, the Premier Division, League Cup and Scottish Cup. The signing of Duncan Ferguson from Dundee United gives Walter Smith's side an air of invincibility, although the Rangers manager would never subscribe to such a theory, especially with injuries which will deprive him of up to seven key players for the season's start.

Celtic and Aberdeen are most likely to provide the challenge, with the young Dons a year older and more determined to rid themselves of the runners-up tag they earned in each of the competitions last term.

Celtic must win something or part company with their manager, Liam Brady - more than four years have passed since silverware graced the Celtic Park sideboard. Brady has made changes in the backroom staff, with Joe Jordan, the former Hearts manager, arriving as his assistant.

On the playing front, Pat McGinlay has joined the midfield from Hibs, and Brady must hope he can keep John Collins. Between them Aberdeen and Celtic are capable of winning something but their reserve strength is sure to be severely tested.

The lack of reserve strength must relegate the other clubs to title also- rans, and if that will disappoint Hearts and Dundee United, both of whom have new managers in Sandy Clark and Ivan Golac, at least neither should be in danger of relegation.

That honour befalls the two new sides, Raith Rovers and Kilmarnock, who will be seen as favourites to drop out with another unfortunate.

There is, though, little sign of pessimism among the newcomers, both run by 36-year-old player-managers. The former Northern Ireland defender Jimmy Nicholl, leads Raith against St Johnstone with guarded optimism that they will survive the season.

Jimmy Burns dismisses claims that his team is top heavy with old players arguing instead that Kilmarnock, back in the top division, after 10 years, have the mix of experienced and younger players needed for survival.

Four clubs, all full-time, form the First Division vanguard, Airdrie, Falkirk, St Mirren and Dunfermline. But in a season when nerves will be stretched, the real winners will be those clubs which can preserve their status amid one of the biggest upheavals in the history of Scottish football.