Aston Villa are underdogs against PSG but their optimism is not misguided

Villa were in bullish mood ahead of the visit of the French champions despite trailing 3-1 from the first leg

The way Unai Emery has tried to explain it, Nuno Mendes’s injury-time goal at the Parc des Princes didn’t alter much. The temptation was to think it made Aston Villa’s task twice as hard, from the tough to the borderline impossible. Emery disagreed, both in the wake of defeat to Paris Saint-Germain last week and ahead of the rematch.

“From 2-1 to 3-1 is changing something,” he said. “A lot? No, because we have to win. Now we have to win with one more goal.” One more? Villa mustered one, marvellously constructed, goal in the French capital but they only had one other shot on target and mustered a mere nine touches in the PSG box. Now they need two goals, plus a clean sheet, just to ensure an extra 30 minutes. “If we are getting extra time, fantastic and if we are getting a penalty shootout, it could be fantastic,” argued Emery.

Villa have optimism and reasons behind it. They confounded expectations to lead in the Parc des Princes, albeit only for four minutes. Morgan Rogers, the scorer then, approaches the rematch with confidence. “There’s massive belief,” the winger said. “Most people wrote us off before the tie. The first leg, we gave a pretty good account of ourselves. If anyone is going to turn it around, it is going to be us. We are not saying we are going to do it, but we will give it a good go.”

Morgan Rogers scored in Paris last week (PA Wire)

That bullishness could be well founded. Villa have four clean sheets in five home European games this season. Three of them produced scorelines – 2-0, 4-2 and 3-0 – which would bring extra-time or direct progress into the semi-finals. They have already condemned one of the continent’s superpowers to defeat at Villa Park, with Jhon Duran’s spectacular goal bringing disappointment for Bayern Munich. Indeed, if the Premier League is included, they have overcome another, with Manchester City overrun in December.

And it is a safe assumption that Villa Park will be loud on Tuesday night. Champions League quarter-finals often are, but particularly for clubs who are not accustomed to them. “If we are connecting with our supporters, if we are transmitting positive energy, if we are getting tactically and individually good things on the field, the supporters are going to help us a lot,” Emery said.

As a former PSG manager, he has painful evidence they can crack under pressure. A recent example came on English soil, in a fervent atmosphere, against another club who were strangers to big Champions League ties for decades. PSG were walloped 4-1 at St James’ Park by Newcastle last season. Luis Enrique’s side look a vastly better team now, though, and the manager is unlikely to make the same mistake of deploying a 4-2-4 formation that leaves his side short-staffed in midfield.

Emery’s track record shows he has a habit of getting decisions right. His mastery of knockout ties has been proven time and again in the Europa League. On the five occasions he has reached the final, his teams have won four times. He knows how to plot a course deep into a tournament and has done it the hard way, after setbacks. In 2014, his Sevilla side lost the first leg of a derby to Real Betis 2-0. They won by the same margin at home and prevailed on penalties. They lost the first leg of the quarter-final 1-0 to Porto and won 4-2 on aggregate. They trailed in the 2015 and 2016 finals and won both. His teams have taken the long route, too: his Villarreal won the 2021 final after a 22-penalty shootout.

Manager Unai Emery has an impressive record in Europe (PA Wire)

If Villa can make the tie tight enough, they have attackers who can provide a dramatic finale. Marcus Rashford knocked PSG out six years ago with an injury-time penalty. Ollie Watkins has been frustrated to start on the bench for the last two games but he proved a super-sub with a flair for the spectacular in England’s Euro 2024 semi-final against the Netherlands.

None of which makes Villa the favourites. But then they can look deep into their own history, to the cast list of the players in the 1982 European Cup final. Bayern had Paul Breitner and Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, who started in a World Cup final a few weeks later. They lost to Villa.

Now, once again, they look the underdogs, a team who have gone further and faster than most anticipated. “It has been a surreal upcoming for the club and accelerated where we wanted to get to, but at the same time we know we are good enough,” said Rogers. “We are here for a reason, we deserve to be here and we have taken on every battle and opportunity this season. You can look and say, ‘our name and club don’t deserve to be here’ but that’s not how we look at it.”

And they hope that, come the final whistle, they will be the unlikely but deserving figures in the semi-final.