Champions League group phase finale: Who has qualified, who is in the play-offs and who might be eliminated?

Everything you need to know ahead of the final round of matches in the competition’s group phase

The final round of matches in the Champions League’s league phase take place on Wednesday evening, as several clubs wait to learn their fate in the competition.

Only two of the 36 sides in the tournament are certain of progressing into the last 16 automatically, with a further nine having already been eliminated.

This leaves 25 sides battling for either automatic qualification or a place in the play-off round, which takes places in February.

Among them are Manchester City, who start the day outside of the play-off places, and Aston Villa, who face Celtic with both eyeing an automatic qualification place.

All 18 matches kick-off at 8pm GMT on Wednesday, ensuring that fans are in for a rollercoaster evening as the competition’s inaugural league phase comes to an end. Here’s everything you need to know:

Who has made the round of 16 already?

Only two sides have guaranteed themselves a place in the last 16 of the competition.

League phase leaders Liverpool have won every match of their campaign so far, and they will finish top of the table if they avoid defeat to PSV.

Barcelona are the other side who have secured a place in the round of 16, with their dramatic 5-4 win over Benfica meaning they will likely finish second.

The first legs of the last-16 ties are due to be be played on 4 & 5 March.

Who is hoping for an automatic place in the last 16?

A win over Celtic would give Aston Villa a great chance of making the last 16 automatically (Getty Images)

Arsenal sit in third in the league phase table and they are essentially guaranteed an automatic place in the last 16. They are only three points above the teams in ninth to 13th, but they have a superior goal difference of between seven and 11 goals on those sides.

The scenario is similar for Inter Milan, who have 16 points but less goal difference than Arsenal – they could be overtaken if they lose against Monaco and Villa were to beat Celtic 3-0, for example.

The teams in fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth could all fall into the play-off places, but none of them can fall out of the top 24.

Atletico Madrid and AC Milan sit on 15 points, with Atalanta on 14 and Bayer Leverkusen on 13.

Which teams are in the play-off spots?

Real Madrid are one of the sides between 9th and 18th, all of whom are guaranteed at least a place in the play-offs (Getty Images)

The teams who finish between ninth and 24th will go into a play-off round for a spot in the last 16.

The teams from ninth to 16th are seeded, and they face a team between 17th and 24th. The seeded teams have the advantage of playing the second leg at home – who they face is determined by a separate draw.

Ahead of the final round, Aston Villa are ninth, with Borussia Dortmund in 14th, Bayern Munich in 15th, Real Madrid in 16th and Celtic in 18th.

Every club from 9th to 18th is guaranteed at least a place in the play-off round as it stands, though all of them could also climb into the automatic qualification positions if results went their way.

Villa are only behind eighth-placed Leverkusen on goal difference, with 18th-placed Celtic just a point behind them, so it could be all to play for in terms of those final six automatic qualification spots.

Who is at risk of being eliminated?

City's 4-2 loss to PSG means they sit two points adrift of the play-off places (Getty Images)

Manchester City are the biggest club at risk of exiting the competition, with the 2023 winners sitting in 25th ahead of the final round of games.

They face Club Brugge, who are in 20th, three points above Pep Guardiola’s side.

Every side from 19th to 27th is at risk of being eliminated, including PSG – who beat City 4-2 last week – Benfica, Sporting and Stuttgart (who themselves face PSG in a potentially pivotal clash, with both sides on 10 points).

City have just eight points ahead of kick-off, but a win could take them as high as 19th and into the play-off spots.

A draw for the Cityzens would mean they were eliminated.

Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk are the other two sides sitting out of the play-off places who could still earn a spot, though they face difficult final fixtures against AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund respectively.

Eight sides have already been eliminated from the competition: Bologna, Sparta Prague, Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava and BSC Young Boys.