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How can Chelsea qualify for the Champions League last-16?

A draw or better will see Chelsea safely through to the knockout stages, but defeat leaves them open to falling down to the Europa League

Jack de Menezes

Wednesday 09 December 2015 17:03 GMT

Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho gestures during the defeat by Bournemouth (Getty Images)

Chelsea can reach the last-16 of the Champions League with a draw in their final group game against Porto on Wednesday, but a defeat would open the door to dropping down to the Europa League.

The Blues are top of Group G on 10 points alongside the Portuguese club, but Dynamo Kiev sit in third on eight points and will have hopes of progressing to the knockout stages given that then face group whipping boys Maccabi Tel-Aviv, who are yet to register a single point.

It’s very possible that the top three teams will finish the group level on points, which would see things boil down to a three-way mini-league.

But how could Chelsea’s Champions League hopes play out? We take a look at the different permutations.

If Chelsea beat Porto…

They’re through to the last-16 and as group winners. Dynamo Kiev would join them with a victory over Maccabi, although failure to beat the Israeli’s would see Porto progress.

If Chelsea lose to Porto…

The opposite would happen. Porto would go through as group winners, and Chelsea would finish third if Kiev beat Maccabi.

Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Show all 12

1/12Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Thibaut Courtois - 6 out of 10

For most of the game, he proved just why Mourinho said Chelsea have sorely missed him these last three months. The Belgian returned from injury to make multiple saves and deny Bournemouth as the visitors dominated the play in the first half and looked assured and confident in goal. But he has to take a lot of the blame for Bournemouth's winner after deciding to come out and being left stranded.

2015 Getty Images

Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Branislav Ivanovic - 5 out of 10

Struggled to deal with the pace of Stanislas on the right flank early on, with the Bournemouth winger nearly scoring twice in the first period. Contained him as the game progressed and then began to push forwards - nearly creating a goal in the process. However, he didn't do enough to stop Cook from crossing in the ball from which Murray scored.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Gary Cahill - 6 out of 10

Was forced to produce some last-ditch defending to deny Bournemouth in the first half, and regularly came out of position to try and clear the danger. But should have done more to follow the run of Murray or at least communicate better with Zouma to ensure he was marked in the build-up to the winner.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Kurt Zouma - 6 out of 10

Didn't have the best of games and failed to mark Murray before he scored although his pace was important in tracking back and defending when the visitors went on the counter.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Bab Rahman - 6 out of 10

Did well, as ever, going forwards and contributing to Chelsea's attacking play but left spaces behind that Smith and Ritchie exploited, particularly in the first half. Will need to work on that area of his game if he wants to cement his spot in Mourinho's team.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Nemanja Matic - 5 out of 10

Really struggled to impose himself in midfield and allowed the likes of Surman, Arter and Gosling to run riot early on. Should have headed in the opener later, but didn't seem ready for Willian's cross and ended up directing the ball high.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Cesc Fabregas - 4 out of 10

Failed to control proceedings in the middle of the park and made a hash of an early chance when he kicked the ball out instead of to one of his teammates in the box. His struggles this season continue.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Willian - 6 out of 10

Started the game on the right flank but was shifted into the hole behind Costa at half time. Proved a threat at times, but didn't have the kind of impact he has had in previous games.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Oscar - 5 out of 10

Endured a largely disappointing 45 minutes after tamely driving Hazard's cross at goal towards Boruc and then seeing his best effort saved by the Bournemouth goalkeeper minutes later. Despite growing into the game as it progressed, he was brought off for Costa at half time.

Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Eden Hazard - 6 out of 10

Worked really hard to get forward and try and create goal-scoring opportunities - coming close to scoring on several occasions - while setting up Hazard for a superb chance. Tracked back and defended too, which earned him a yellow card.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

Eden Hazard - 6 out of 10

Didn't have the same impact up front in the lone striker position as he did against Tottenham. While he certainly tried to score - forcing Boruc into a superb save after he had cut in and driven at goal - he kept dropping onto the flank or deep to collect the ball leaving a gap up front. Saw his effectiveness wane when Costa came on, but Mourinho will be pleased to see the Belgian contributing to Chelsea's defensive play, although he was dispossessed which nearly resulted in Bournemouth scoring.

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Chelsea player ratings vs Bournemouth

<b>Best off the bench:</b> Diego Costa - 6 out of 10

Was kept on the bench, similar to against Tottenham, but was brought on at half-time to replace the ineffective Oscar. Was denied a penalty when his low shot hit Francis' arm in the area, and then was cautioned seconds later for a pull on Ritchie. Seemed to let his frustration get the better of him although he provided Chelsea with a more attacking threat up front.

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If Chelsea and Porto draw…

Here is where it gets tricky. Both Porto and Chelsea would finish level on 11 points, with the Portuguese side ahead as they won the reverse fixture in Portugal. However, if Kiev beat Maccabi, they would also have 11 points, and qualification would go to a mini-league format with results against Maccabi removed.

That would mean all three would sit on five points, and remarkably Kiev would lead the way with a goal difference of plus one. Chelsea would follow in second with a goal difference of 0, while Porto would be heading to the Europa League due to a minus one goal difference.

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