Is Pep Guardiola playing a game in lowering Manchester City's European expectations?

By most measures City should be close to being the favourites for the Champions League – but that's not the way Guardiola sees it

Manchester City shattered all expectations in the Premier League last year, but when it comes to European football Pep Guardiola is still determined to reduce them.

By most measures City should be close to being the favourites for the Champions League. Having won the Premier League so comprehensively last year, having such a strong squad, a stable club and a manager who has won it twice before should count for a lot. But – in public at least – Guardiola is not having it.

You could point out that Real Madrid have lost their manager and their top player, that Barcelona are in poor form, that PSG are as enigmatic and untested as ever, that Bayern Munich have an untested coach now, that Liverpool may be focusing on the league instead, or that Manchester United are heading for a cliff edge.

Guardiola would never agree. For him, Manchester City’s lack of European history means that his team will never be as likely to win this competition this year as one of the less strong, but more established sides. “We are Manchester City, we don’t have the history behind us,” he said. “That is why I am surprised when people say ‘Manchester City are going to win, fantastic.’ OK, thanks, appreciated. But it’s not the truth. We are, believe me, a step below the history of Liverpool, the Spanish teams, Bayern, Juventus or Milan.”

That is why Guardiola is so determined that even the smallest progress this year – even the last-16 – would be seen as a “huge success” for the club. Even though City got to the quarter-finals last year. Even though they have Sergio Aguero, David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Guardiola himself.

“I said many times: the best success is one semi-final [in 2016], the second best success is one quarter-final [in 2018]. Try to reach the ‘eighth-final’ [last-16], and when that happens in the last-16 for Manchester City, it’s a huge success. People say: ‘no, you go out at the quarters or semi, it’s a disaster.’ But for us it’s a huge success to get to the last-16! Every time you can do it, learn and improve for the club. The way you have to fight against all circumstances. That is why today is one of the happiest days I live in this club. Because it’s going to help us for the future.”

It was Guardiola at his most passionate. But you have to ask whether he really believes it. Guardiola is obsessed by winning, and by winning the Champions League. He knows how important it is to win the most prestigious tournament of them all. He won it in his first and third years coaching senior football but it has now been seven years since he was even back in the final. The fact that he lost three semi-finals at Bayern Munich is held against him, and he knows that too.

This is Guardiola’s third year at City and while he is signed up to 2021, this could well be City’s peak season under him. Barcelona were better in his third year than his fourth, remember. Fernandinho is 33, David Silva is 32, Sergio Aguero is 30, and none of those players will be replaced by anyone nearly as good. So it is reasonable to wonder, even now, at the start of October, with City two games into their campaign, whether this could be their best shot at old big ears.

It is inconceivable that none of these thoughts have crossed Guardiola’s mind. So given everything we know about his ambitions, and those of the owners, and the strengths of City, and the openness and randomness of the Champions League, it is only fair to wonder whether Guardiola might be playing a game.