England can grab glory with positive gameplan

Fitness of Owen, the heat, and a Mexican referee are main worries as Eriksson's side seek first victory in finals against Brazil

As the England squad travel through the tea plantations of Shizuoka to the Ecopa Stadium for tomorrow afternoon's World Cup quarter-final against Brazil the movie theatres of the mind will be in overdrive.

David Seaman will recall Gordon Banks' save and Rio Ferdinand will replay Bobby Moore's tackle. The fearful will be unable to get Rivaldo's goal against Belgium out of their heads; the bold will think, instead, of the enticing holes Marc Wilmots exposed in Brazil's defence. The young and ambitious will look about them, at David Beckham and Michael Owen, and remember St Etienne and two hours of football which changed those players' lives, ultimately for the better. All may dwell on Beckham's words this week when he said: "In this game certain moments may not come again."

On average, for an English international footballer, they come around once in a career. Not many players retain the jersey for eight years and, since losing to Brazil in Guadalajara 32 years ago, England have reached this stage of the World Cup four times. For all the talk about this being a young and promising side there are no guarantees that they will be here in Germany 2006. Carpe diem should be today's slogan.

It is a match which calls for strong characters. Even the Brazilians are excited and, according to inside accounts, nervous at the highest level. If the match lives up to the anticipation there will be bacon butties left untouched in pubs from Newcastle to Newquay and caprinhas undrunk from Recife to Rio. England's most important World Cup tie for a dozen years, and their most glamourous in decades, may even bring large parts of Japan to a standstill so fondly are both teams regarded here.

England's main concern, pre-match, is the fitness of Owen. Neither he, Paul Scholes nor Darius Vassell trained yesterday although they did undertake gym work. "I think by Friday everybody will be fit," said Sven Goran Eriksson yesterday. Should that be the case, England are likely to be unchanged for the third successive match, a feat last achieved at Euro '96.

However, the condition of a foot injury, such as Scholes has, is relatively easy to assess. Owen's groin and Vassell's sore back are more problematic. Muscular injuries are likely to recur if not healed and while Owen's importance to the team, and the value of his reputation, means Eriksson will be desperate to start him, neither man would want to risk that.

Should both Owen and Vassell be unfit Eriksson will have to choose between Fowler's instinct and experience and Dyer's pace and energy. This decision could depend on the climatic conditions.

England are scanning the skies seeking the return of the tsuyu, as the Japanese call their monsoon, which doused their match with Denmark and Japan's with Turkey. "Let's hope it will rain a little. We are used to rain in England," said Eriksson. "I would be happy to do a rain dance!"

Should that fail, the temperatures are likely to be around 30C in the shade. "If I could change the kick-off time I would but that is impossible. We have to do all that we can to beat the heat," said Eriksson. "If it's hot it is very difficult to maintain the tempo."

England have yet to beat Brazil in the World Cup, losing two and drawing one of their three encounters. They have only beaten them three times in 16 friendly matches. Nor can they look to their manager for inspiration. Sweden have met Brazil a record seven times in the World Cup, drawing two and losing five, including the 1958 final and the 1994 semi-final.

For Eriksson it is a contest between the best defence in the tournament and the best attack, a belief backed up by the statistics. No team matches Brazil's 13 goals, only Germany, against weaker opposition, has also conceded England's one. He added: "I'm very optimistic. I think if we can repeat the performance against Argentina then we can beat them."

Whatever the result one hopes it is achieved without controversy. Given the beneficial refereeing decisions which have accompanied Brazil's progress – so noticeable as to have merited an article in the International Herald Tribune – England will be watching Felipe Ramos Rizo closely. There have long been close links, in footballing politics, between Mexico and Brazil and their administrative regions. This could, though, go the other way as Snr Rizo may be especially careful to avoid accusations of bias.

In a World Cup like this one anything is possible and England can win. Owen, and his understudies, have the beating of Brazil's defence and Beckham's delivery should be profitable at set-pieces. England's defence will struggle, though, to extend its five-hour shut-out another 90, or 120, minutes.

A key factor will be England's approach. If Beckham and Trevor Sinclair spend the game defending against Roberto Carlos and Cafu the initiative, and probably a semi-final place, will be Brazil's. England need to be controlled but positive.

There are defining images in every World Cup: Kenneth Wolstenholme's commentary as Geoff Hurst completes his hat-trick; Gordon Banks' save; the Hand of God; Salvatore Schillaci scoring to a Pavarotti soundtrack; Michael Owen's goal. The opportunity is there for someone to join that list. It will probably be Owen or Ronaldo, Beckham or Rivaldo. But it could be Trevor Sinclair or Danny Mills. England must seize the day.

HOW THE GAME COULD BE WON

BY ENGLAND...

England will endeavour to profit from their traditional strengths: specifically power in the air, principally from Emile Heskey in open play, providing ammunition for the resourceful and elusive Michael Owen, but with reinforcements in the shape of Rio Ferdinand and Sol Campbell (scorers in the tournament from headers) arriving for what could be crucial set plays. David Beckham, equipped with those mesmerising inswinging and outswinging corners, will be the principal danger to Edmilson and Lucio, who at times appear to adopt a complacent attitude to their opponents' forwards. Luiz Felipe Scolari's team struggled with the Belgians' aerial threat on Monday night, a point exemplified when Marc Wilmots netted, but had the effort harshly disallowed.

Though Mbo Mpenza inflicted damage with his pace and crossing from the right flank, it is difficult to conceive Beckham not being be able to improve on that, even if below peak fitness, as the England captain looks. Heskey's control may leave something to be desired, but he is still a better proposition in front of goal than the predictable and sluggish Gert Veheyen was at Kobe. As Juninho, whose three years with Middlesbrough gave him a comprehensive understanding of English league football, admitted yesterday: "Brazil have more technique, but we have to match them (England) in heart and also be attentive to high balls, which they play better than we do."

Sven Goran Eriksson's team will also have discerned on Monday that Brazil are vulnerable to a delayed incursion into the area, which is Paul Scholes' forte. Bart Goor found the Brazilian defence absent on Monday with one late surge, chasing the kind of long ball that Nicky Butt has provided in place of Steven Gerrard in this tournament, but the Belgian failed to make contact with his head. Though England required four games before scoring from open play – Owen succeeding against Denmark – it is difficult to imagine that they won't succeed against Brazil.

BY BRAZIL...

Brazil may accept their defensive failings, in the confident belief that their distinguished attacking players – scorer of 13 goals thus far – will embarrass England more comprehensively. The greatest danger to England's rearguard, who have been perhaps fortunate to concede only one goal as yet, is to begin to believe that they possess the fortitude and discipline of an Italy of 1990. The suspicion is that they don't.

Brazil, and this generation is no different from their predecessors, enjoy nothing more than lulling their victims into a false state of security, before striking with venom through Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho. Full-backs, Danny Mills and Ashley Cole, are susceptible to the wiles of quality wide players, and, as the former has already pronounced, it will be a contest in which the England men will have to provide constant cover for each other.

Much will depend on Rio Ferdinand and Sol Campbell's reading of the Brazilian's creative patterns; when to challenge, when to drop off. This will be a real judgement on Ferdinand's prowess. Concentration will have to be maintained vigilantly because it is not just the Three Rs that should concern England, but the marauding Roberto Carlos and Cafu, together with Juninho, who may be the architects of real danger while attention is drawn towards other directions. Nicky Butt will have to maintain a watchful observation of the latter, and David Beckham and Trevor Sinclair will be asked to track back to support England's full-backs.

Juninho, a little magician, with the ability to elude several challengers before despatching the ball swiftly and with accuracy, will relish the contest. He insists that Brazil can "keep England off balance with quick touch passes and movement and not let their defence settle." That may well be true; however, the fact that England possess an innate belief that they can record a first World Cup success against Brazil must place the balance of possibilities slightly in their favour.

By Nick Townsend