Euro 2016: England face tricky path if they fail to top the group

A second-place finish would potentially mean facing hosts France in Paris in the quarter-finals

England are certain to top Group B if they beat Slovakia (Getty)

England will avoid a quarter-final clash with Euro 2016 host nation France at the Stade de France and the prospect of a potentially troublesome return to Marseille for the semi-finals if Roy Hodgson’s team defeat Slovakia to secure top spot in Group B on Monday.

While qualification as group runners-up would see England face a more straightforward second round tie in Nice against the second placed team in Group F – likely to be Iceland or Hungary – the rewards of finishing top outweigh the hazards of a last sixteen clash with a dangerous third-placed team at Parc des Princes next Saturday.

As group winners, England would face a third-placed team from Group A, C or D in Paris – potentially Romania, Northern Ireland or the Czech Republic, who kept their qualification hopes alive with a dramatic fightback to draw 2-2 with Croatia in St Etienne on Friday.

If England successfully navigate the second round, the path as group winners would take them to a quarter-final in Lille on July 1 against the winners of the second round tie between the Group F winners (probably Portugal) and runners-up in Group E (Belgium or the Republic of Ireland).

France would lie in wait at the Stade de France, however, if England triumph in the second round tie in Nice. Beat the hosts, and it would ensure a return to Marseille for the semi-final, less than a month after violence marred the Group B opener against Russia at Stade Velodrome.

Despite the uncertainty of England’s next opponents should they qualify, Hodgson insists he is relaxed about the path his team must take – wherever they finish in the group.

“You never know who you are going to play,” Hodgson said. “You think ‘we want to avoid this one or that one’ then the team you don’t expect tops the group and the second-placed team is the harder one to play.

“We’ve not given any thought to that whatsoever. We will need to start looking after the Slovakia game.

“We are covering all the matches with our scouts – our scouts are covering eight, nine or 10 teams but we are not bothered by that at the moment.

“We have four days between games and my message to the players – although they won’t need it rammed down their throat – is that we need to win this one as well.”

England's failure to win their group at the 2010 World Cup led to a defeat in the next round against Germany (Getty)

Winning against Slovakia would ensure England avoid the nightmare scenario of squeezing through as a third-placed team.

Should Wales defeat Russia and England lose to Slovakia, Hodgson’s men would finish third and face either Germany or Spain in the next round.

So winning matters on Monday and, if England cannot win, then they must not lose, unless they fancy their chances against the world champions or European champions.