Hughes implores Wales to mine rich seam of form

In Baku you can smell success. The air is so thick with the petrol which has fuelled the economic transformation of Azerbaijan that it catches in your throat.

The Wales squad which trained in the elegant, ivy-shrouded surroundings of the Tofik Bakhramov Stadium, named after the Azeri – not the Russian – linesman whose decision swung the 1966 World Cup England's way, could probably taste it too. Should they leave it tonight with a victory, Mark Hughes' team might be staring success full in the face, rather than merely sniffing it.

When the draw for Group Nine was made, Hughes felt the back-to-back matches against Azerbaijan, probably the most chaotic footballing nation in Europe, whose players have not taken part in a competitive domestic fixture for six months, would be pivotal. If Wales started badly, they could resuscitate their European Championship qualifying campaign. If it was a good beginning, and few could have anticipated they would beat the Italians in Cardiff, they might propel them into a position from where it would be difficult, but not impossible, to fail. Potentially eight points clear of Italy with four to play.

"To qualify, we have to pick up points away from home and, given how the fixtures pan out and the way we and other teams have started, it's vital to pick them up here," Hughes said. "But this match is as difficult, if not more difficult, than the Italy game."

Even without the injured Craig Bellamy, Mark Pembridge and Robbie Savage and with Danny Gabbidon holding his strained back after training, that seems like the purest take-each-game-as-it-comes manager-speak. Azerbaijan, their league suspended after allegations that their FA had fixed it in favour a team they controlled, are now on their third national coach in the space of a year. The latest incumbent, Asker Abdullayev, complained: "All we can do is pray to Allah and prepare to play Wales. It seems nobody in this country cares about football, except us coaches." True, his team did beat the Turkish Second Division side, Antalyaspor, in a friendly last week, but this was a club which had lost home and away to Barry Town.

Yet perhaps Hughes was right not to loosen his natural caution. Wales failed to beat Armenia, Belarus, and rather more problematically, Ukraine, in three away games in their World Cup qualifying campaign and those who saw Azerbaijan lose 2-0 to Italy in September thought they went down fighting.

It is, however, unlikely Wales will be discomforted by their environment. There will be no "Welcome to Hell" posters greeting their supporters, indeed, given what makes Azerbaijan run, "Welcome to Shell" might be more appropriate. The Wales squad has been quietly astonished by the glittering quality of their hotel in Baku and the Tofik Bakhramov yesterday wore the gentility of a Cheltenham cricket ground.

"The facilities have improved in this part of the world," Hughes said. "People have a preconceived idea of what it's going to be like. It's not so much of a concern as it was in the past when you were facing teams you had little idea about. One game that springs to mind was playing in Georgia [in 1994] when we were beaten 5-0. Georgia hadn't been independent very long and people assumed they were a little country we would brush aside. They were fantastic on the night," Hughes recalled before adding pointedly: "We weren't very well informed then."

The adjective Hughes uses about his side now is "confident", even without names like Bellamy, Savage and all the other absentees. The midfield, which will be patched up tonight, has always been the key to his long-term plans, shielding what began as a highly-suspect defence and providing the platform to counter- attack. Hughes reckons it has taken two years for the players to be comfortable in the system.

It is not just tactics but psychology Hughes has turned to. As the team rested in their hotel in the Vale of Glamorgan countryside prior to departing for the shores of the Caspian Sea, he had them watch a video of their defeat of Italy. "It was to remind them how well they had played, a lot of them had not seen the match on tape before." Hughes has watched it at least half a dozen times. Once you have smelled success, you want the aroma to linger.

AZERBAIJAN (probable, 4-1-4-1): Gasanzade (CSKA Baku); Kerimov, Yadullayev, Akhmedov, Niftaliyev, Asadov (all Karabagh-Azersun Agdam), Imamaliyev, Sadygov (both Shafa Baku), M Gurbanov (Samkir), Musayev (Terek Grozny, Rus), G Gurbanov (Fakel Voronezh, Rus).

WALES (probable, 4-5-1): Jones (Southampton); Delaney (Aston Villa), Melville (Fulham), Page (Sheffield United), Barnard (Grimsby); Davies (Tottenham), Robinson (Portsmouth), Speed (Newcastle), Earnshaw (Cardiff), Giggs (Manchester United); Hartson (Celtic).

* One of the worst records in British football was laid to rest in Baku yesterday when Wales beat Azerbaijan 1-0 for their first Under-21 win since March 1997. The run of 26 matches was ended when Bristol Rovers' Kevin Gall scored in the 73rd minute in the European Under- 21 Championship qualifier.