Knee injury set to rule out Hamann

It may not suit pundits, professionals or anyone with a passing knowledge of football to admit it, but the course of even the most important match is often determined by plain, simple good fortune.

World Cup semi-final or not, today's game between South Korea and Germany could easily be decided by as mundane a matter as whose luck runs out first.

Neither team can reasonably deny that fortune has favoured them thus far, to such an extent in the case of the co-hosts that random chance has been confused in some quarters with conspiracy theory.

Korea undoubtedly benefited from some dubious decisions in last week's matches against Italy and Spain, both of whom were denied legitimate goals that would have won the game. But, as Germany's goalkeeper and captain, Oliver Kahn, put it, taking the mature view: "That's normal. It's called home advantage." Emphasis on the word advantage.

It is only thanks to Kahn's outstanding work between the posts, and a benign smile from that capricious Lady Luck, that his team have advanced to the last four, conceding one goal (to Robbie Keane) in five matches. Not convincing at any stage since the 8-0 victory over Saudi Arabia in their very first game, they could easily have lost to either Paraguay or the United States in the knock-out stage, rather than winning 1-0. Yet here they are again, for a 10th semi-final appearance in 15 tournaments.

That is a formidable record, though one to which South Korea should not pay undue homage. Their coach, Guus Hiddink, has doubtless been telling his players what Ireland's Mick McCarthy told his before they went out and achieved a thoroughly deserved 1-1 draw: "You're not playing a team that's won the World Cup three times, you're playing 11 men."

The Koreans have been no respecters of reputation so far in overcoming Portugal, Italy and Spain, their own progress over the 18 months of Hiddink's reign reflecting how a country's prospects can fluctuate between one tournament and another. They went into this one needing a victory in one of their first two games to avoid equalling Bulgaria's record run (from 1962-94) of 16 matches at the finals without a win, duly achieved it against Poland and have been growing in confidence ever since.

A capacity crowd almost devoid of opposing fans will urge them on again in a manner that has elicited acknowledgement from even the experienced Kahn, who said: "The emotions and passions surrounding this Korean team are something I have never witnessed before." Only the rain that dribbled on Seoul throughout yesterday will prevent record numbers – seven million is the latest estimate – coming out onto the streets to add their support.

A change in midfield is likely to be forced upon each team, with Liverpool's Dietmar Hamann struggling with knee trouble, and Kim Nam-Il equally doubtful for the home side.

"We have nothing to lose and will play the way we like to play," said Hiddink of the squad he calls his "young dogs".

His opposite number, Rudi Völler, said yesterday: "The South Koreans will run until they drop." But they have not dropped in any match yet, and have looked the fitter side in the two matches they have been involved in that have gone into extra time.

The Germans might even meet their match if it comes to another penalty shoot-out, against players whose domestic league games are decided on them if scores are level after 90 minutes.

Either way, it will require a better German performance than for the past few games – and probably that little bit of luck as well – to finally subdue Hiddink's dogs of war.