Why Manchester City require an ‘almost perfect’ game to defeat perennial enemy Real Madrid

Pep Guardiola’s City trail 3-2 on aggregate after letting a lead slip away in the first leg at the Etihad Stadium

The perfectionist is aiming to be almost perfect. Manchester City have been wildly imperfect this season; it is why they think they are on the brink of their earliest Champions League exit since Roberto Mancini’s reign. Pep Guardiola won 6-2 on his first trip to the Bernabeu as a manager. He doesn’t need a similar scoreline but he may require a greater shock if his City are to knock out Real Madrid now.

Guardiola himself estimated their chances at 1 per cent. “I always say what I think and this time, you don’t believe me,” he said. “He doesn’t really think that just as we don’t think we have 99 per cent,” countered Carlo Ancelotti; a quintuple Champions League winner who has experienced too much to fall for any kidology. “We have a small advantage.”

It is probably more than that and the truth lies somewhere in between. “The truth is that I don’t know what the accurate percentage is,” said Bernardo Silva, often a voice of reason. “It’s more than one.” But less than it was when City were winning 2-1 with five minutes to go at the Etihad Stadium. Then Brahim Diaz equalised. Then Jude Bellingham continued Real’s tradition of late goals against City.

“The result is not good,” said Guardiola. The odds seem stacked against his side now. “You have to make an almost perfect game. We came here with better results and it didn’t come.” That may have been a reference to the 2022 semi-final when City won 4-3 in Manchester, led for 178 minutes of the tie and were knocked out by Rodrygo’s late double, aided by Karim Benzema’s extra-time intervention.

Real, the team who never know when they are beaten, can find different ways to beat City even if, as Silva noted, each side has knocked the other out twice in the last five seasons. Last season’s triumph came on penalties: Silva’s attempt at a Panenka in the shootout backfired when Thibaut Courtois simply stood up and caught it. “No regrets,” he insisted. A game against Real often involves confronting the past; the storied history of the 15-time winners or personal pain. Silva has often been a scorer against Real, struck at the Bernabeu last season and yet was asked if he would volunteer in a shootout. “Definitely I would put my hand up,” said a man who has often proved willing for City.

For Guardiola, Real have been the perennial enemy, the rivals of his beloved Barcelona, the team who knocked his Bayern Munich side out in the semi-finals, a side he seems to face on an annual basis now. “I have incredibly good memories of this stadium,” he said. “Sometimes good ones, sometimes not good but it has never been easy.”

Pep Guardiola says City have a ‘1 per cent’ chance of beating Real Madrid (Action Images/Reuters)

Real Madrid’s modern galacticos will be difficult to beat at home (AP)

Quite how difficult it will be depends on the cast list. Erling Haaland, Jack Grealish, Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake all travelled to Spain. It does not necessarily mean each will be fit. They all have an importance. Haaland scored twice last week, Grealish played well in the first half an hour and City are already a defender down after losing Manuel Akanji, the man chosen to shackle Vinicius Jr last week but whose half-time departure allowed the Brazilian to run riot after that.

City are at least stronger than they were in another respect. The boost of Nico Gonzalez and Omar Marmoush’s auspicious displays against Newcastle, surely City’s most comprehensive display against high-calibre opponents this season, should propel the new signings into the starting 11. Yet a month ago, they played for Porto and Eintracht Frankfurt; now, they could face the modern-day Galacticos. “You can’t just focus on one when they have Jude Bellingham, Vinicius and Rodrygo,” said Silva. And, of course, his friend and former Monaco teammate Kylian Mbappe; a newcomer to this duel, a scorer last week, a lifelong Real fan. “It was his dream since he was a kid,” said Silva. “He’s a special player, one of the most special.”

After scoring at the Etihad, Kylian Mbappe could prove key for Real’s chances (AFP/Getty)

Manchester City must win at the Bernabeu without their Ballon d’Or winner as Rodri remains on the sidelines (Reuters)

City remain without their most special individual. They had a tifo of Rodri in the stands last week but no Rodri on the pitch. His absence has altered everything. “I won three [La Liga] titles with Barcelona. Would I have done that without [Lionel] Messi?” asked Guardiola. “I don’t think so.”

Now he has to win in the Bernabeu without him. The context surely makes it his most demanding trip yet. And yet, Guardiola hinted, he has a little more optimism than he initially suggested. “What I said after the game in England and here is we were out as the weeks go by, you show yourself up.”

City need to show up in the Spanish capital. If not, the Champions League show will proceed without them. There will be an emptiness to their fixture list, a void in their April and May. “When the season started, I wouldn’t believe you if tell me we were in this position in the Premier League and playing against Real Madrid in the play-offs and not the quarter-finals or the semi-finals,” said Silva. Coming 22nd in the group phase was something he could scarcely comprehend and he added: “We put ourselves in this situation and we deserve it. If we don’t go through, it will be a lesson for the future.”