Arsenal and Vieira may be heading for a Real hot summer

Wenger is adamant about his captain's commitment

It is turning out to be a typical January for Arsenal. Well placed in the championship race, safely through to the fourth round of the FA Cup and hoping to do better than the season before in the Champions' League. All that had been missing from the early days of 2002 was the obligatory Patrick Vieira transfer story. The wait is over.

Every year, we are led to believe that the French international is about to leave north London. Juventus, Internazionale, Roma, Barcelona and Milan: you name them, the big European clubs have all sought his signature. Yet, so far, Vieira has remained loyal. Having been down this road several times before, it is perhaps no surprise that his manager greeted this week's fresh round of tittle-tattle with a Gallic shrug.

"I cannot put it more simply than to say he will not go," Wenger declared ahead of today's crucial Premiership match with fellow title hopefuls Leeds United. "However much we are offered, he will stay. What is the point in having a bank full of money if you have no team?"

Wenger is in defiant mood, but you wonder how long he can hold on to the midfielder he bought for just £3.5 million in 1996. The alleged £55m transfer fee aside, it is the identity of the latest suitors which has led so many to think that this time it could be for real – Real Madrid, that is.

Vieira is known to be a long-standing admirer of the Spanish giants. He is also great friends with fellow Frenchmen Claude Makelele and Zinedine Zidane, the man he could soon replace as the world's most expensive player. Wenger says that Real have sent him a letter denying any foul play. He also insists that the "Real factor does not make this fresh approach more serious", although it is worth noting that they have managed to prise away both Luis Figo and Zidane from major rivals in the last two seasons.

Money plays its part, but it is fair to assume that the lure of the Bernabeu is also such a persuasive factor. Who could resist the opportunity to play alongside Zidane, Figo, Roberto Carlos and Raul, to name but a few of the Real dream team? "They are a very special club," said Vieira's team-mate and confidant Robert Pires. "You could not blame Pat if he was flattered by their interest. But I think he has made his position clear. He pledged his future to Arsenal in the summer and he has been awesome all season."

Despite Pires' wishes and Wenger's protests, you suspect that the only question is when – not if – the Arsenal captain will jump ship. Reports that Real want the deal to go through by the end of this month, however, would appear to be misguided. Wenger admitted as much. "If they wanted to do something," he said, "they certainly wouldn't do it at this stage of the season."

Furthermore, Vieira is European Cup-tied, not to mention contractually obliged. He is not the type to abandon his employers in mid-season, but come the summer a switch could be made far more easily. Vieira will have been at Highbury for six years, served his dues, and, more importantly, have only two years left to run on his contract. Interestingly, Wenger has never ruled out the possibility of a post-World Cup transfer.

The biggest concern surrounding Vieira's possible departure is the potential repercussions on the Arsenal team as a whole. With a new stadium in the pipeline, the board know that it is imperative to have an exciting and successful side to attract investors and the required 60,000 fans. The club's vice-chairman, David Dein, has admitted that selling their best asset would make "no sense". Wenger echoes those views, not least because it might set a dangerous precedent. No one is suggesting that Vieira's departure would provoke a mass exodus, but there is no doubt that several key components – particularly the French connection – might be more easily tempted should the 25-year-old be allowed to leave. "Keeping Patrick is a message you give out to the other players," Wenger said. "It shows our intentions."

Pires made it clear last summer that Vieira's decision to continue his sojourn in the Premiership persuaded many, including himself, to pledge their futures to Arsenal. His position has not changed. "Keeping Pat will help persuade others to stay," he says. "You cannot try to be one of the best clubs in the world and then let your best players go."

The irony of Vieira's possible transfer to Spain is not lost on Pires, who opted for Arsenal ahead of Real Madrid when both clubs were courting him during Euro 2000. "It is vital that Pat stays, because it would demonstrate that our club want to progress. If you let a player of Patrick's stature leave, then people stop taking you as seriously as before."

In the past, one of the more frequent explanations for a possible Vieira transfer was the Frenchman's continued brushes with the footballing authorities. Rarely would two games go by without him receiving a yellow card. This season, though, Arsenal's vice-captain has usually kept his head. Vieira's supporters believe that this good behaviour is proof of his new-found maturity. His critics, meanwhile, are suggesting this is a sign that his heart is no longer in the club. Nevertheless, few of Vieira's team-mates have followed his measured lead. Half a century of cautions and half a dozen expulsions by mid-January takes some doing, even if Wenger is adamant that his side are "committed, but fair".

"Teams like us and Leeds are given a bad name," the Frenchman said, "but that is unfair. We are both physical teams who rely on pace and athleticism, but we are not dirty. English football is all about passion and commitment – that's why so many people love the English game and want to come here." Wenger must now hope that it is also a good enough reason to persuade his talisman to stay.