Eriksson and O'Neill to join big spenders in the January sales

With the transfer window about to open, Jason Burt assesses where the smart money will be going next month

The January transfer window is a time for the desperate and the desperately ambitious. Given that accounts for virtually the whole of the Premier League, it should be a 31-day frenzy of buying and selling, although intent probably will not be followed by delivery as many clubs simply do not want to sell unless they can land their targets first. It is the domino effect and could lead to a moribund market.

Into the ambitious, and cash-rich, category fall Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa, while Chelsea will spend big, if they can, and because, due to circumstances, they have to. The desperate? Fulham, Sunderland, Wigan Athletic, Birmingham City and Newcastle United head that list, although the dilemma for the latter is whether or not they entrust Sam Allardyce with that spending given the increasingly precarious grip he has on his job.

Portsmouth fall into both categories but Harry Redknapp, despite being shorn of some of his best players by the African Nations Cup, will not quite have the funds that were made available to him last summer. Neither, despite their promising season, will Everton, even if their squad is healthily robust and could cope with the potential departure of James McFadden.

The reasons for the attempted frenzy are clear. It has been a year of record revenue for Premier League clubs and relegation is simply not a possibility that can be countenanced not when there is a pot of 1.76bn to be shared in the top flight, as is expected to be the total in 2008. The main transfer business is, of course, done in the summer with 80m spent last January, compared to more than 500m in the close season, of which the average fee was a staggering 4m.

"English football remains the financial powerhouse of Europe," said Alan Switzer, a director in the Sports Business Group at the business advisory firm Deloitte, who added that England alone now accounts for almost one in four of the transfer deals done across the continent. It is a trend, he said, that will continue, with more and more clubs falling into ambitious foreign ownership.

Not that they can always spend the money. One leading agent said yesterday: "Some clubs, like Manchester City, certainly have money but it's question of do they try and spend that money now or wait until the summer when it's easier to get the players Sven really wants?"

Others, such as Wigan and Sunderland, also have significant budgets, and pay good wages, but struggle to attract leading players. Some managers, such as Villa's Martin O'Neill, are simply aware that now is not a time to spend well. "I accept you sometimes have to pay over the odds in January but it is something we need to address," he said.

Of the big four, Arsenal will be intriguing as despite being told by all and sundry that he needs one, and despite a cash mountain of 70m being, in theory, available to him, Arsne Wenger appears intent on not buying a striker to bolster his title bid. He is undoubtedly interested in Lyons' 20-year-old Karim Benzema, but is unlikely to prise him away while the French club remain in the Champions League, and a previous target, Yoann Gourcuff, who is with Milan. There will be at least one arrival and one departure, however, and possibly two of each, but Wenger is intent on doing it his way.

Liverpool are even more fascinating given the warfare that has existed between Rafa Benitez and the club's owners and the apparent disagreements that have also emerged between the two Americans. It could see Javier Mascherano slipping through the net, although the obvious thing to do is to sell Mohamed Sissoko to Italy and use that cash to help fund the Argentinian's 17m transfer fee. However, Manchester City, who have identified a holding midfielder as their main priority, are waiting to hijack the deal and will offer impressive terms along with a pre-contract agreement.

Their city rivals, United, are, maddeningly for the other 19 clubs, in astonishingly good health. Their squad is strong and will be enhanced by the signing of at least one new full-back, with Alan Hutton expected to arrive from Rangers for 6m. Wes Brown's agent has talked about him leaving, although he will probably stay, while Louis Saha is likely to depart but not until the summer when United will have more chance of landing one of their main striking targets Dimitar Berbatov or Samuel Eto'o.

As ever forwards are the most valuable currency of the transfer window. The names on the lists of several clubs are the same - but whether many, or any, can be prised away remains to be seen. Nicolas Anelka is almost certain to leave Bolton Wanderers for Chelsea, instead of Manchester City or United, in what could be the first big-name deal. Inquiries will be made to Spurs about Darren Bent, but only probably for a loan deal which will be rejected, and Jermain Defoe, who has just 18 months left on his contract and is the most likely front man to leave White Hart Lane.

Manchester City's signing of Nery Castillo could prove to the deal of the window, however. The Mexican striker is regarded as an exciting prospect and has arrived on a year's loan from Shakhtar Donetsk, having only moved to the Ukraine last summer for 15m from Olympiakos.

Events at Valencia may draw two more strikers to the Premier League. Coach Ronald Koeman has started a ruthless clear-out at the struggling club and among those surplus to requirements is Nikola Zigic, who has previously interested West Ham and Portsmouth. Of even more interest, and one likely to find himself moving to one of the "Big Four" should he leave Spain, would be David Villa. However given the 26-year-old's stellar status it is likely that Valencia would demand a stellar fee upwards of 30m and that could cool talk of him leaving.

Two other Spanish strikers are being considered. Santiago Ezquerro, now 31, wants to leave Barcelona and, with his contract due to run out this summer, could attract a bid from Bolton as a short-term solution for the expected departure of Anelka. They, along with Everton, inquired about him last summer. At the same time Wigan have looked at Inigo, a 10m-rated 25-year-old who plays for Real Murcia, as have Birmingham.

Indeed, the fortunes of one Hammers striker may dictate a kind of merry-go-round which illustrates how the market operates. If Bobby Zamora goes, and he will if 5m is put on the table, then it is the kind of deal that will spark others. Sign for Reading, for example, and Leroy Lita will go to Sunderland or West Bromwich Albion for the same fee. The effect of that will be to move one of Roy Keane's strikers on and so forth. Meanwhile, back at Upton Park, there will be a vacancy and the phones will be ringing to fill it.