Ferguson: Ruud can make the difference

In the long history of what some of us still like to call the European Cup, only two teams – Real Madrid in 1957 and Roma in 1984 – have ever managed to play in a final on their home ground.

Manchester United, winners in their own country in 1968, have the opportunity to emulate them this season, but to reach even the last four of the competition they must retrieve a deficit of 3-1 against Real on Wednesday.

Not easy. But infinitely less daunting thanks to the away goal Ruud van Nistelrooy poached soon after Raul had put the holders 3-0 up and they were indulging themselves, as Sir Alex Ferguson put it, "like performing seals" in the first leg. United's manager knows his European onions; he can recite the Real team who eliminated his side four years ago by running up a 3-0 lead at Old Trafford, and could probably name the magnificent XI from the same club he watched as a young Queen's Park player at Hampden in the superlative 1960 final.

Having led a team to the knockout stages seven times running, Ferguson is also well aware of the difference between a 3-0 drubbing and a 3-1 defeat. "If we'd lost 1-0, we'd still have had to score two goals and people would have said that was a good result," he said on Friday. "The situation we're in at the moment, if we score two goals and don't let any in, we're through. The secret is to make sure we don't lose one. And if we can go in 1-0 up at half-time, the whole complexion changes."

That is the theory, anyway. Steve McManaman, Real's perennial bench-warmer, admitted that the home dressing-room was "quiet" after the first match despite the superlatives being lavished upon his team. Perhaps Luis Figo was reflecting not so much on his opening goal (the cross-shot derided by Ferguson as a fluke) as the one he scored in opposite circumstances at Stamford Bridge three years ago – in another quarter-final first leg, Chelsea had blitzed Barcelona with three goals in seven minutes before half-time, only for Figo to alter the look of the tie by scoring around the same time as Van Nistelrooy did. It looked even more different on a memorable night in the Nou Camp, when Barça finished the job by winning 5-1 in extra time.

Real Madrid are not Chelsea, in any area of the pitch, but there is hope yet, and Ferguson has been nurturing it ever since the first game, showing his players a videotape of it to accentuate the positive aspects of their performance. "No matter what the critics have said about Real, we played well attacking-wise," he insisted. "We got into good positions, had good chances and stretched them out well.

"There's no way Figo meant that for the first goal. But look at what's happened in our big matches this season – the League Cup final [against Liverpool] a deflected goal, the FA Cup against Arsenal a deflected goal, last Wednesday [at Highbury] an offside goal. So maybe we're due that break now, because it does even itself out."

In circumstances like United's, there tends to be, of necessity, enough straw- clutching to fill a barn. The performances recently in scoring 12 goals against Liverpool, Newcastle and Arsenal have been sufficiently impressive, however, to convince more neutral observers than Ferguson that his side need not yet kiss goodbye to their European dream. It is hard to dispute the manager's thesis that his charges thrive on the big occasion and have not been found wanting when spirit, as well as footballing ability, has been tested.

"I think we're playing well, looking strong, and the character's good," he said. "It's character that helps you at the moment. Roy Keane said before Wednesday's game, 'If I get a knock, I'll never last', but he tackled all night. That's character. Ryan Giggs has been fantastic. But the one who gives us our biggest chance is Van Nistelrooy. He's getting better all the time. Look at that goal he scored the other night."

Others among the Dutchman's colleagues have less to bring to the party. Paul Scholes and Gary Neville will be there in civvies, after being booked again – Scholes for a particularly silly challenge. Their absence would be serious enough without complications over the fitness of John O'Shea and Wes Brown (the alternatives at full-back) and Scholes's obvious replacement, Juan Sebastian Veron.

Then there is David Beckham, subdued again in Madrid by his Brazilian nemesis, Roberto Carlos, and left out at Highbury. Does Ferguson play him on Wednesday or go with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, who bent it like Beckham for Giggs's dramatic equaliser against Arsenal?

The key to the tie is surely the next goal. If the Dutchman, or any other player in a red shirt, can score it, even Real may tremble. Ferguson believes that, imperious or not in the first game, they are sufficiently concerned to play an extra centre-half and leave out one of their superstars, but will still want that first goal: "Make no mistake, they'll go at us, because that's their nature. I'm positive about that. I have to make sure we're brave enough to play one against one. If we can do that, it gives us a chance, even if it's nil-nil at half-time.

"They're a good side, we're not disputing that, and it'll need to be our best performance in Europe. It could be an interesting evening." Nobody is disputing that, either.