Premier League relegation battle: Who has the best run-in at the bottom of the table?

West Bromwich Albion looked doomed, two clubs will join them. Who does the fixture list suggest it could be?

Crystal Palace, Southampton, Stoke and West Ham are all in trouble at the bottom (Getty)

This Premier League season has seen one of the widest relegation battles for some time, with only the ‘top six’ and Burnley feeling secure against the drop for the majority of the campaign.

Everton, currently sat in ninth, only reached the famous 40-point mark with victory at Stoke during the last round of fixtures.

Below them, Bournemouth and Watford are both on 36 points and will feel somewhat safe, if not totally out of the woods just yet.

West Bromwich Albion are bottom with just 20 points, nine adrift of safety and seem all but certain to go down. This leaves two remaining spots and eight clubs – positioned between 12th and 19th – that could fill them.

So, who will it be and who will do enough to survive?

By calculating each Premier League club’s average points-per-game home and away this season, we can approximate the difficulty of each remaining fixture and see who, on paper, has the easiest and most difficult relegation run-ins.

Who has the most favourable run-in?

1. Crystal Palace

Current position: 16th
Points: 30
Average points-per-game of remaining opponents: 1.15

Remaining fixtures

31/03 Liverpool (H)

07/04 Bournemouth (A)

14/04 Brighton (H)

21/04 Watford (A)

28/04 Leicester (H)

05/05 Stoke (A)

13/05 West Bromwich (H)

Crystal Palace may have endured the worst-ever start to a Premier League season, losing their opening seven games without scoring a goal, but the fixture list suggests they will enjoy an easier end to the campaign.

Once Liverpool are out of the way this weekend, Roy Hodgson’s side will have faced all of the ‘top six’ twice and the many of their remaining fixtures are against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Rivals Brighton are poor travellers and come to Selhurst Park in mid-April. There should be confidence around Leicester’s visit too, after Palace’s excellent 3-0 win at the King Power in December.

If it does still come down to the final day for Palace, then their survival will rest on beating a West Bromwich side likely to have already been relegated.

2. Newcastle United

Current position: 13th
Points: 32
Average points-per-game of remaining opponents: 1.36

Remaining fixtures

31/03 Huddersfield (H)

07/04 Leicester (A)

15/04 Arsenal (H)

23/04 Everton (A)

28/04 West Bromwich (H)

05/05 Watford (A)

13/05 Chelsea (H)

TBC Tottenham (A)

Though Newcastle still have three of the ‘top six’ to face, two of those encounters will come at St James’ Park. One of them is against Arsenal, who have a particularly poor record away from home this season, while the other – Chelsea – only visit on the final day.

Newcastle’s two other home matches come against Huddersfield and West Bromwich Albion. Three points from both will be seen as a must but certainly not a given, considering how Brighton, Watford, Bournemouth and Swansea have all left the north east with something this season.

3. Swansea City

Current position: 14th
Points: 31
Average points-per-game of remaining opponents: 1.42

Remaining fixtures

31/03 Manchester United (A)

07/04 West Bromwich (A)

14/04 Everton (H)

22/04 Manchester City (A)

28/04 Chelsea (H)

05/05 Bournemouth (A)

13/05 Stoke (H)

TBC Southampton (H)

Having looked down and out in December, Swansea are on the verge of another great escape, this time inspired by Carlos Carvalhal.

Carvalhal’s side have been particularly impressive at home, winning all but one of his Liberty league games in charge. That bodes well for their remaining home fixtures, which see a homesick Everton plus fellow strugglers Stoke and Southampton come to south Wales.

Though two trips to Manchester may be fruitless, the resurgent Swans will fancy themselves at the Hawthorns against West Bromwich and on the south coast against Bournemouth too.

4. Huddersfield Town

Current position: 15th
Points: 31
Average points-per-game of remaining opponents: 1.47

Remaining fixtures

31/03 Newcastle (A)

07/04 Brighton (A)

14/04 Watford (H)

28/04 Everton (H)

05/05 Manchester City (A)

13/05 Arsenal (H)

TBC Chelsea (A)

It will be some achievement if David Wagner manages to keep Huddersfield in the Premier League for a second season and it is a prospect not beyond the realms of possibility. The Terriers may, however, need to pick up a couple of unexpected results.

The away days at Manchester City and Chelsea look like write-offs for a side that has struggled on the road. Brighton, who have a decent home record, may be a bridge too far as well.

Yet two mid-April matches at the John Smith’s Stadium against Watford and Everton – both likely to be treading water in mid-table by then – could lead to useful points. Arsenal’s visit on the final day of the season should not be ruled out either. You can almost hear the ‘Wenger Out’ chants already.

5. West Ham United

Current position: 17th
Points: 30
Average points-per-game of remaining opponents: 1.55

Remaining fixtures

31/03 Southampton (H)

08/04 Chelsea (A)

14/04 Stoke (H)

22/04 Arsenal (A)

29/04 Manchester City (H)

05/05 Leicester (A)

13/05 Everton (H)

TBC Manchester United (H)

David Moyes’ West Ham have five home games in their last eight, but that may come as no real benefit given what we have seen at the London Stadium in recent weeks.

West Ham’s fate is likely to depend on how they fare against Southampton this weekend and then Stoke in mid-April. Gaining three points on each of these sides – who sit directly below Moyes’ men in the table – would likely be enough to keep their head above water.

Less will be expected from trips to Chelsea and Arsenal and from Manchester City and Manchester United’s visits, though if the top clubs indulge in some late-season rotation, West Ham could benefit.

On the final day, they should find themselves up against an Everton side with little to play for.

6. Stoke City

Current position: 19th
Points: 27
Average points-per-game of remaining opponents: 1.61

Remaining fixtures

31/03 Arsenal (A)

07/04 Tottenham (H)

16/04 West Ham (A)

22/04 Burnley (H)

28/04 Liverpool (A)

05/05 Crystal Palace (H)

13/05 Swansea (A)

Stoke have improved under Paul Lambert but the question is whether they have improved enough.

The former Norwich City and Aston Villa manager has stopped the rot – with three defeats in their last eight – but wins have still been hard to come by, and given that both north London teams come in the next two, Stoke may be waiting a little longer for three points.

A Monday night trip to West Ham in mid-April already looks crucial, especially as Burnley will prove difficult to take points from and Liverpool could rip their ramshackle defence apart at Anfield.

Lambert must hope that by May and back-to-back games against fellow struggles Crystal Palace and Swansea, Stoke’s time is not already up.

7. Brighton and Hove Albion

Current position: 12th
Points: 34
Average points-per-game of remaining opponents: 1.65

Remaining fixtures

31/03 Leicester (H)

07/04 Huddersfield (H)

14/04 Crystal Palace (A)

17/04 Tottenham (H)

28/04 Burnley (A)

05/05 Manchester United (H)

13/05 Liverpool (A)

TBC Manchester City (A)

The good news for fans of Brighton is that they are 12th in the table, six points clear of the relegation zone. The bad news is that Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham make up half of their remaining fixtures.

It is not much better outside of those games, either. Brighton’s record away from home is poor this year and, as well as the Etihad and Anfield they must go to Turf Moor and there is a daunting M23 derby at Selhurst Park.

On the upside, a recent five-match unbeaten run did their hopes a world of good and with two consecutive, ‘winnable’ home games up next, they could have reached the 40-point mark before their horrific end-of-season schedule has truly got going.

8. Southampton

Current position: 18th
Points: 28
Average points-per-game of remaining opponents: 1.69

Remaining fixtures

31/03 West Ham (A)

08/04 Arsenal (A)

14/04 Chelsea (H)

19/04 Leicester (A)

28/04 Bournemouth (H)

05/05 Everton (A)

13/05 Manchester City (H)

TBC Swansea (A)

This could prove to be a classic case of when the fixture schedule comes back to bite a team.

Southampton played more home games in the first half of the season than any other top-flight team after their trip to West Ham’s London Stadium was switched to St Mary’s, due to the World Athletics Championships being held in Stratford.

It means that, ahead of the rearranged fixture this weekend, five of Southampton’s final eight games are away from home, with the trip to Arsenal, Leicester, Everton and Swansea to come as well.

Of their three home games, one is against a Chelsea side that could still be in the hunt for a top-four place and another is against runaway leaders Manchester City on the final day of the season, when they may need a win most. Mark Hughes has a difficult job on his hands.

Verdict

Brighton have a rotten end to the campaign on paper but will more than likely to do enough to secure safety. Newcastle should also be able to keep their heads above the line, barring a catastrophic run of form.

While there is cause for optimism at Crystal Palace and Swansea, Huddersfield have to be careful and may need a couple of shock results in their favour.

For West Ham, a lot rests on their two home games against Stoke and Southampton and between them, those three clubs have a lot to worry about.