Southampton leave Swansea on the verge of relegation while consigning West Brom to the Championship

Swansea City 0-1 Southampton: Manolo Gabbiadini's strike consigned West Brom to the drop, with Swansea now requiring Huddersfield to slip to defeat in their final two matches

Manolo Gabbiadini scored what is likely to be a priceless goal for Southampton (Getty)

There are a thousand factors that determine whether a team stays in the Premier League but so much of it just comes down to nerve.

That is why Southampton are now effectively safe for another season despite doing nothing all year and still looking dead just 19 days ago, when they drew 0-0 with Leicester City. And why Swansea City, climbing the right way two months ago, are now almost fully submerged into next year’s Championship.

This £100million turnaround is a thrilling vindication for Southampton and the punt they took in March. Saints were sleep-walking to relegation under Mauricio Pellegrino so they went all-in on Mark Hughes, his aggression, his snarl, his British brand of nous. He is not to everyone’s taste but he was exactly what Southampton needed, replacing a man with less aggression and less snarl than any other manager in Premier League history.

Hughes started slowly but Saints won their 35th league game, drew their 36th and here tonight in Swansea won their 37th game to hit finally 36 points. It is surely the most thrillingly timed new manager bounce in history, propelling the team to safely here in May, when the sun doesn’t set until the second half of an evening game.

Southampton are now all but guaranteed to survive (Getty ) (Getty)

And that moment, with the game 0-0 and Southampton heading towards the drop, was when Hughes spectacularly earned his money here. A draw would have been useless to Saints, forcing them to rely on Swansea failing to beat relegated Stoke City on final day. So with his team on top here but lacking an edge, Hughes threw on Shane Long and Manolo Gabbiadini in quick succession, Gabbiadini for the injured centre-back Jan Bednarek.

That switch, effectively to a 4-2-4, won Saints the game and saved their season. All night Austin had been working hard but unlucky and frustrated up front. After firing one effort wide he then hit four straight at Lukasz Fabianski, including one volley and one header with which he should have done better. So with 22 minutes left, Gabbiadini came on. Because when you’re that close to the Championship, and everything that entails, why not throw everyone up and just get the ball forward?

Four minutes later, Oriol Romeu nodded down a Dusan Tadic corner and Austin had yet another shot repelled. But this time there was Gabbiadini, a man whose only skill is finishing, to do exactly that. It was his first goal since February but sometimes a manager just has to go with a hunch. This was the goal Hughes had gambled on but also the goal that Southampton deserved. Because they had been steadily creating chances ever since they got a foothold in the game, showing a precision, imagination and nerve that Swansea never did.

Charlie Austin wasted a number of good chances in the first-half (Getty)

Swansea are not down, not quite yet, but they could barely be closer. They need to hope that Huddersfield lose both of their last two games, or that Southampton are obliterated by Manchester City, while Swansea hold their nerve to win big against Stoke City on the final day. If Huddersfield take one more point it is essentially over.

But this game was a simple example of why Swansea likely will be playing Championship football next year. If Southampton’s new manager bounce was perfectly timed, Swansea’s was used up too soon. Carlos Carvalhal’s motivational effect worked in January and February but wore off in March. In their last eight league games, including this one, Swansea have scored two goals and taken just three points.

And the bravery and firepower Southampton showed off here is exactly what Swansea have lacked. The team has fatally retreated back into its shell recently, stuck in Carvalhal’s back five system. They never risk anything, and that is what is going to cost them.

The Italian striker bundled the ball home (Getty)

Even here they had a ferocious home support on their side and they began the game buoyed by that noise. They kept launching the ball up at Saints, desperate for something to hold onto. But this team is short of quality and confidence and all they really have is the pace of Jordan Ayew and Andre Ayew. They ran hard, trying to force a mistake, to let Saints in, but it never happened. And the longer the game went on, the more secure Saints looked.

Carvalhal moved first bringing on Tammy Abraham, and he did make an improvement, but never enough. Saints went ahead and Swansea barely threatened after that. Abraham shot over once, had a header saved after fouling a defender, and that was that. What had won Southampton the game, the patience to keep playing their football, the nerve to gamble and gamble again off the bench, Swansea lacked when they needed it the most.

Swansea now look destined for the drop (Getty)

Never in the Premier League has one team won so much on their final rolls of the dice as Southampton have this year. Maybe you can no longer call them a ‘model club’ but at least they gambled and won, and unlike Swansea will still be here next year.