Alternative World Cup predictions: which sides are destined to repeat history in Russia?

Chief football writer Miguel Delaney casts his alternative predictions for this summer's World Cup

Argentina's draw with Sweden in the 2002 World Cup group stages prevented them progressing to the knockouts (Getty)

In an alternative take on World Cup predictions, The Independent looks to see where history might repeat itself at this summer’s tournament in Russia.

From clinching a shock World Cup victory, as West Germany did in 1954, to departing early with their tails in between their legs, just like Argentina in 2002, chief football writer Miguel Delaney considers which sides are most likely to do a...

… a West Germany 1954

The Germans’ supreme record in this competition means it is almost impossible now to imagine them as anything like underdogs but, even in that, they stand apart. The part-amateur side that emerged from the wreckage of the second world war have pretty much been the only shock champions in the World Cup’s history, not least because they beat Hungary. The competition has just never really lent itself to the surprises of the European Championships, or winners like Denmark 1992, Greece 2004 or even Portugal 2016.

That means that ideas about what would constitute a shock winner might have to be reshaped, but Portugal could perhaps be the best candidates again. They have the tournament experience, they have the World Cup’s best goalscorer in Cristiano Ronaldo. They could also have competition in this regard from Colombia, Belgium and perhaps… England. These are sides that don’t have that truly elite outstanding quality, but do have just enough to sustain something special for a mere seven games.

West Germany after their shock victory at the 1954 World Cup final (Getty)

… an Argentina 2002

There are many sides who have infamously flopped at World Cups, from Colombia to Spain, but perhaps none who had such high hopes as Argentina. They were so highly-fancied going into 2002, and didn’t even seem to have the personnel problems that defending champions France did given Zinedine Zidane’s lack of fitness. They still went out in the first round, from a tight group. It was an embarrassment for the country, but the worry now is that they are probably the side most primed for another. Of all the big-name nations, Argentina have the most gaps in their squad, have had the most issues finding a formation for it, have had the most problematic build-up and – again – have a tight group. Some of Belgium’s build-up also suggests they have it in them to implode.

… a Bulgaria 1994

Or, if you like, Croatia 1998 or Turkey 2002 – the surprise semi-finalists. These are teams with some talent but who maximise every last drop of it to go further than anyone expected. A Denmark crowned by Christian Eriksen could well do this, while Colombia have similar potential.

… a Cameroon 1990

The side that became a riotous revelation, when many had probably considered them irrelevant. It wasn’t so much that they surprisingly went far, but how entertainingly they did it. A talented Morocco have it in them to do similar.

Cameroon were a riotous revelation at the 1990 World Cup (Getty)

... an Ireland 1990

They scored only two goals, but that was enough to play five games, as they defiantly made it to the quarter-finals by becoming so difficult to play against. Step forward Tunisia, who could well step up… if not in defence. They will be very tough to break down and, just like Jack Charlton’s side in 1990, face an opening game against England. That will say a lot, if not necessarily entertain a lot.

… a Thierry Henry 2002

The Arsenal striker had finally accelerated onto the world-class level his talent always suggested in 2001-02, only to show no suggestions of it in the 2002 World Cup. That wasn’t entirely down to his own failings, as he toiled in a desperately jaded France side, but that is also what to look for in potential successors. If Belgium encounter trouble, the World Cup may not see the form of Kevin De Bruyne or Eden Hazard that’ve we’ve come to appreciate. There’s a similar pressure on Gonzalo Higuain.

… a Louis van Gaal 2014

The growing trend in football has been for the best coaches to gravitate to the money and the prestige of the club game, creating something of a brain drain at international level in terms of tactical sophistication. But this also presents the opportunity for a single coach to leave a lasting impression on a tournament with an idea that stands out. This is what Van Gaal did in 2014, at once restoring his own reputation, too, and taking the Netherlands far further than they should have gone. Four years on, this could well be where Jorge Sampaoli really shows his ability. The Argentina boss has already admitted his primary pressing approach won’t work with this squad, but that approach was borne of a vibrant football knowledge, and he has the capacity to come up with something unexpected. Uruguay’s Oscar Tabarez has similarly shown he can do this.