London Marathon: Radcliffe facing a race against Ndereba as well as the clock

Britain's queen of the roads must overcome Kenyan as she targets world best to send out message to Olympic rivals

Some time today, although it may be even be left until the eve of tomorrow's Flora London Marathon, eight male Kenyan athletes will be presented with bibs indicating their allotted pacemaking time for the women's race. The odds are that the leading pair – these pacemakers go in two-by-two – will have the figures 2:16 on their back, the likely target for the 29-year-old Briton who has occupied the gilded heights of women's world distance running over the last year.

If Paula Radcliffe can get close to a time that is well inside her current world best of 2hr 17min 18sec – and why not, given that she has achieved everything she has set her mind to in the course of the last 12 months? – it would do more than make her the first British woman to retain the London title since Joyce Smith in 1982.

It would also send out a powerful signal to all her likely rivals over the strength of her challenge for next year's Olympic marathon title – if she finally decides to go for that rather than the 10,000 metres. Should Radcliffe commit herself to running 26 miles 385 yards in Athens, tomorrow's marathon would be her last beforehand, and she needs to produce something memorable in her third attempt at the distance.

But she will need to be at her best to withstand the efforts of the 30-year-old Kenyan whom she replaced as the world's fastest woman marathon runner in winning the Chicago marathon six months ago, Catherine Ndereba.

While Radcliffe's other main rivals, Ethiopia's Derartu Tulu and Deena Drossin, of the United States, have been cautious about their likely capacity to run a race at or around 2:16 pace – Drossin has stressed she is looking for a personal best of around 2:20 – Ndereba has conspicuously refused to rule out the possibility of regaining her position as holder of the world best. She is also unimpressed by the late addition of male pacemakers to what has traditionally been a women only race, an innovation that was clearly adopted with the local girl's aspirations in mind.

Radcliffe maintained earlier this week that she was in good shape to defend the title she earned last year with a runaway victory in 2:18.56, the fastest debut ever recorded, although she bore the scars on her shoulders, knees and face of the collision with a cyclist while training in Albuquerque that left her with cuts, bruises and a dislocated jaw.

But Radcliffe's fitness coach, Gerard Hartmann, admits that he feared that she would not be fit to run in London after coming to her aid at the scene of the accident. "Any other person would have fainted after what happened," Hartmann said. "She was a bloody mess and it was horrendous to see her in that state. I cannot think of any other woman reacting the way Paula did.

"While they would be worried about the cosmetic effects of the injury on their faces and lasting visible scars, Paula had only one concern on her mind. The first thing she said as I was cleaning up the wounds, was 'When will I be able to run again?' For a week afterwards I still didn't think Paula would be fit to run in London.

"The injuries might not have looked that bad. But the dislocation of the jaw which spread into the neck and caused whiplash could have caused serious repercussions. If the pain had continued down her back I'm certain she wouldn't be running. Fortunately, I was able to call in a doctor friend in Albuquerque who gave her expert treatment."

Hartmann believes Radcliffe is now in the best possible shape. "What pressure is there for me other than that which I put on myself?" Radcliffe said. "All I have really needed to do this week is stay calm. The bumps and bruises are not troubling me. Everything now is just superficial and there are no problems."

Zola Budd-Pieterse, the South African who controversially competed for Britain in the 1980s as a barefooted teenager, is not expected to be among the leading challengers to Radcliffe, but her presence in the race at the age of 36 represents something of a triumph in itself.

Budd-Pieterse, now a mother of three, was effectively hounded out of British athletics in 1986 by those who felt that a representative of a country that pursued the policy of apartheid should not have been able to compete internationally through being fast-tracked to a British passport.

Having promised herself years ago that if she ever ran a marathon it would be the London, she is here to make good her vow, and seeking a finishing time of around two and a half hours.

A bout of tonsillitis has deprived the event of Khalid Khannouchi, the naturalised American who won last year's race in a world record of 2hr 5min 38sec. In his absence, the man beaten by just 10 seconds last time, Kenya's five-times world cross country champion, Paul Tergat, is favourite to earn his first title after two runners-up placings despite formidable opposition in the form of Ethiopia's 24-year-old world and Olympic champion, Gezahegne Abera, and Morocco's Abdelkader El Mouaziz, who won the London title in 1999 and 2001.