Racing: Rock's Ascot run a risk too far for Coolmore

Aidan O'Brien says he will tell us tomorrow morning which of his horses will run in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Saturday. That though seems to be a suspension of the obvious, among the Ballydoyle spearheads at least, and it must be a Beechy Bank chance that Rock Of Gibraltar will run in preference to Hawk Wing at the weekend.

Officially, O'Brien says he will monitor his leading colts before determining the yard's permutation. The big boys apart, he has Landseer, Castle Gandolfo, Sholokhov, Twentytwoandchange and Sahara Desert, one of whom will be asked to do the early dirty work at the head of the field, among the 13 entries.

Indeed, it looks a rather funny QEII this year both in terms of numbers and quality. The Irish deputation apart, there are entries for Godolphin's Noverre, last year's runner-up, and Best Of The Bests, while the Classic input of Gossamer is likely to be missing as the conditions are unlikely to turn in favour of Luca Cumani's filly.

The going in the Queen's acre is currently good to firm and no appreciable rain is expected before the weekend.

So now we have to wait before O'Brien tells us that Hawk Wing will be his main runner. We can be almost certain of this following consideration of the modus operandi of the Ballydoyle/Coolmore axis.

This is the land where horses are bred and purchased to be progenitors themselves, to advertise themselves to best result on the racecourse and retire fairly swiftly to the breeding shed. They often talk about extending the career of an outstanding horse into a four-year-old season, but it never, ever, actually happens.

John Magnier, the godfather of the operation, insists on it. The only career that Magnier will allow to mature in Co Tipperary is his own. He does not own and run horses for fun. There is not even a romantic bone in his dog's kennel.

So what will big John make of his hand for the QEII? For one, he will note that the mile race will not add greatly to the legend that is already Rock Of Gibraltar. His reputation has been meticulously established, Group One brick by brick as a record of seven consecutive victories at the highest level has been accumulated. He now has much to lose.

Hawk Wing, though, still has much to prove. For all the fanfare and the rose petals thrown into his path, the handsome colt has won just one of four outings this season and that a rather soft Eclipse Stakes. Saturday's race represents a limping quarry as well, but that will not be mentioned in his stallion prospectus.

Between now and the weekend we may even get one of the more florid outpourings which O'Brien saves about the versatility of his good horses. Galileo, according to the trainer, was a consideration for Saturday's race in his Derby-winning season last year. Hawk Wing, we must remember, was said to be a Triple Crown horse at the campaign's outset.

Magnier probably does not mind one of his more significant employees picking up and running with the notion that these headline horses could be experts over a range of distances.

What is also a half-step from certainty is that any Ballydoyle star which can get to its feet will be on the van to the Breeders' Cup in Chicago at the end of next month.

Magnier sees this as a no-lose meeting with a permanent fallback position. After a hard season in Europe and a journey to the most competitive card on the planet, occasionally to run on an alien surface, the excuses are manifold.

The blemish of defeat in north America is scrubbed, rinsed and then ironed out by the time the vanquished get home. Success, or even near success, as Giants Causeway showed in the Classic two years ago, means the door creaks open to the golden land inhabited by American breeders.

We can therefore compile further running plans. Rock Of Gibraltar will be excused Saturday and finish his career in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Post Ascot, Hawk Wing will contest the Classic and High Chaparral, whose appearance in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe means a free October Sunday for Golan, in whom Coolmore also have a share, will go for the Turf. If only finding the actual winners was as easy.

n A betting shop punter in North London landed a £6,030 pay-out after backing 200-1 shot Beechy Bank in a double with 4-1 winner Legal Approach on Saturday, Ladbrokes reported yesterday. The punter backed Beechy Bank by mistake, having written the numbers of the horses as opposed to their names on his betting slip. He realised the error in his £6 bet only after the race had started. Beechy Bank's success at Warwick was the longest-priced winner in Britain for nearly 13 years.