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The Open 2017: A betting guide as the weather blows the 146th championship wide open

None of the world's top players are coming into the event with much of form with high winds expected

Bryan Nicholson
Wednesday 19 July 2017 17:08 BST
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Who are the favourites for the 2017 Open?
Who are the favourites for the 2017 Open? (Getty)

Royal Birkdale will host the Open Championship for the 10th time in 2017 and it's been all fun and games in the lead up to the 3rd major of the season.

We've seen a relaxed atmosphere in the live pre-tournament TV coverage, but looking at weather reports, things are going to get nasty. It's persistent winds forecasted of up to 30km for the first two days and those players who were present at Birkdale for the 2008 Open Championship will have seen it all before.

The winning total of +3 in that renewal was the highest in Open Championship history to par since 1999. It was Irish wind and links expert Padraig Harrington who was triumphant at the end of a brutal week, and the 45-year-old is currently peaking form-wise with an average finishing position of 23.5 from his last 4 starts, culminating in a 4th place finish in Scotland.

Open Championship betting market and men to beat

Judging by the odds, this is one of the most open major betting markets in recent times, with no real outstanding favourites. Some of the world's best have minor issues right now, meaning no less than 9 guys have been priced between 16 and 25/1 to lift the Claret Jug at the head of the betting. Add in the weather variable and it may prove profitable to focus predominantly on casting the net wide and backing some bigger prices.

Before we flag up some potential dark horses and get to the low down of the course and profiling, there is one man at the top of the market really grabbing my interest and that is Rickie Fowler who comes here off "great prep" in Scotland. Fowler is a links and wind specialist with a Scottish Open win under his belt in 2015 at Gullane. The 28-year-old was tied 2nd in the Open in 2014 - a year where he finished top 5 in all four majors. The American ranks 10th in ball striking on the PGA Tour in 2017.

Other notables from the top of the betting include Masters' winner Sergio Garcia and local man Tommy Fleetwood who used to play Royal Birkdale as a kid. Both are top ball strikers and rank 1 and 2 respectively in stroke average on the European Tour in 2017. They lie reverse 1 and 2 in greens in regulation, while Sergio also sits an eye catching 3rd in scrambling. Both occupy positions in the top 10 in driving accuracy, and are well worth a bet.

Aussie Marc Leishman is a strong fancy of mine from the pack. He has already won in difficult conditions in a strong field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2017. A look at his top performances and wins show a theme of thriving on tough courses. He comes to Birkdale off a top 5 at the Quicken Loans National and owns 2 previous Open Championship top 5 finishes, including a T2 following a playoff defeat at ST. Andrews in 2015. Leish has some experience of Birkdale having played in the 2005 Amateur Championship there.

Fowler called the round "stress-free" (Getty)

The Course - Royal Birkdale: par 70, 7156 yards

Ball striking and finding fairways will be the key at Royal Birkdale on a tough but fair track. With forecasted conditions we may see a re-run of the 2008 Birkdale Open leading to a war of attrition out on the links. Huge sand dunes and tall fescues line tight fairways on the track in question. Penal pot bunkers lie in wait throughout the course and aforementioned local man and world no. 14 Tommy Fleetwood says this is the only course he knows where all the sand traps come into play on nearly every hole. No consecutive holes run in the same direction at Birkdale so players will be facing a new challenge every 15 minutes in expected conditions. Camillo Villegas owned the low round of the tournament here in 2008 with a 65 (-5).

Finding the fairways will be crucial (Getty)

Open Championship Dark Horses

Bryson De Chambeau: "What an incredible moment that I'll never forget! Thanks to everyone for the support this week at @JDCLASSIC I appreciate it so much."

Yes, that was what an emotional Bryson had to say following his maiden victory at the John Deere Classic last week which booked him the last ticket to the Open Championship. Free rolling for the Claret Jug, this is a man that became just the fifth player to win both the NCAA and U.S. Amateur titles in the same year, joining the great Jack Nicklaus (1961), Phil Mickelson (1990), Tiger Woods (1996), and also Ryan Moore (2004).

De Chambeau was also the low amateur at the 2016 Masters where he was right up at the top of the leaderboard until a disastrous hole at the end of his third round. The American has experience of English and Links courses having teed it up at both Walton Heath in the Palmer Cup 2014 and Royal Lytham in the Walker Cup 2015.

Soren Kjeldsen fired a top 10 at the Scottish Open and the Dane ranks 14th in fairways hit in 2017. Kjeldsen makes no secret of his liking for playing in the wind and he gave a links masterclass when winning the Irish Open in tough conditions at Royal County Down in 2015. Kjeldsen owns recent top 10s from the Open Championship, the Alfred Dunhill Links, and The Masters in 2016. The Dane excels in the short game department and controlling his ball flight in high winds.

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