Why the dream final of Els v Woods is likely to remain fantasy

Past history does not augur well for the match everyone wants to see at this week's Accenture World Matchplay. The tournament at La Costa in California is not just the first big event of the season but the first time Tiger Woods and Ernie Els will have participated on the same stage in 2003. The world No 1 and the Open champion are the players of the moment with both victorious last Sunday.

For those situated in the land of GMT the day was bookended by their impressive feats. From Perth in Western Australia at breakfast time came Els's 10-stroke victory in the Johnnie Walker Classic, his fourth win in five events this year. After dinner there was Woods at the Buick Classic in San Diego, California, victorious in his first tournament after recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his left knee last December.

It had been the longest injury break of Tiger's career to date but there was little doubt about the manner in which he wished to resume his responsibilities on the US Tour.

Els, buoyed by his victory at Muirfield and the birth of his son last year, has been in remarkable form setting scoring records on both the US and European Tours. He was 31 under par at the Mercedes Championship in Hawaii, though some had the cheek to suggest he would not have gone so low had Woods been playing. In Perth he was 29 under par and for his 20 rounds this year he is a perfectly sensational 100 under par. He is driving superbly with his new driver and the new Titleist Pro V1x ball, and is also holing every putt he looks at. Dating from last year he has won five out of six events, and six out of the last eight.

It was an anomaly on the world rankings, now corrected, that Phil Mickelson ended the year as the world No 2 and not Els. As the top two seeds at La Costa Woods and Els cannot meet before the final, but the history of the event suggests it is unlikely.

Only once has a player seeded to be in the final reached that far. Even then Woods lost to the No 19 seed Darren Clarke in 2000. That year three of the top four seeds reached the semi-finals but otherwise the event has not gone according to plan.

In the inaugural tournament in 1999, Jeff Maggert (seeded 24) beat Andrew Magee (50). In 2001, Steve Stricker, seeded 55th but who played only because of mass withdrawals due to the timing of the event, beat Pierre Fulke (21). And last year Kevin Sutherland (62) defeated his fellow Californian Scott McCarron (45) for the $1 million first prize.

Of all the World Championship events introduced in 1999, the World Matchplay has an element of the cut-throat about it compared to the others, which are cosy 72-hole events with no cut. But it is clear the players, wrongly, do not trust 18-hole matchplay as a fair contest. It's too much of a sprint, anything can happen, upsets become the norm, they wail.

Matchplay over 18 holes does not allow for as many changes of momentum as strokeplay over the same distance but perhaps the players cannot adjust to playing a "Sunday" – decisive – round every day of the tournament. Even Woods, whose guiding principal is that he should not be beaten over 72 holes of strokeplay – he is often right – is not immune. Last year he lost to the 64th seed, Peter O'Malley. New Zealand's Phil Tataurangi will have the first chance to claim the event's biggest scalp on Wednesday, though he is only playing due to the illnesses of Toru Taniguchi and Nick Faldo.

Els faces the veteran Swede, Robert Karlsson. Though the South African has a superb record in the 36-hole matchplay format at Wentworth, winning the title for a fourth time last October, in this event he has only passed the second round once.

European losses may again be frequent in the early stages, but if the draw is not shuffled again by more withdrawals there are guaranteed places in the second round as Clarke faces Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia plays Paul Casey and Colin Montgomerie meets Paul Lawrie on Wednesday. The last contest is one between two Scots, as well as between seven Order of Merit titles and one Major.