Welsh Grand National: Cogry has grit to plough through Chepstow mud

And while the Grand National has been dominated in recent times by seasoned old campaigners, the Welsh version is much more a race for the young improver

Henry Brooke leads on Askamore Darsi en route to victory in the novice handicap chase at Doncaster yesterday for trainer Donald McCain (PA)

Chepstow racecourse officials have been determined, come hell or high water, to stage the Welsh Grand National on Saturday afternoon following the washout of the initial fixture on 27 December and, as of Friday night, it looked as though they would succeed against the odds.

Bringing the race forward from an originally scheduled 3.25 to 1.45 both to ensure fresher ground and pre-empt yet another predicted band of rain sweeping in from the Atlantic was a last-ditch, innovative move from the clerk of the course, Keith Ottesen, “desperate” for the show to go on this time.

It is to be hoped that these best efforts are repaid with a spectacle in keeping with the tradition of this race. It is a contest that was designed to reward supreme stamina and fortitude, but at the same time nobody wants to see just a handful, or less, slogging home in super slow-mo, the rest pulled up dog-tired.

Chepstow’s midwinter ground is as taxing as it gets, even in normal circumstances, and the Welsh Grand National is the severest of ordeals for the staying chaser, although it does not appear to take as much out of a winner as the Grand National.

Indeed, while an Aintree triumph these days seems almost to signal a full stop to winning, Monmouthshire’s gruelling examination over almost three and three-quarter miles, usually in hock-deep mud, has been but a stepping stone to greater things for many equine notables; not just later Liverpool legends, but also several Cheltenham Gold Cup winners, the most recent of which was Synchronised, who won the 2010 Welsh National and 2012 Gold Cup.

And while the Grand National has been dominated (last year’s race aside) in recent times by seasoned old campaigners, the Welsh version is much more a race for the young improver.

Two who definitely fall into that category are Upswing and Cogry, among today’s favourites following prominent and most encouraging displays in a Cheltenham staying chase in November.

Upswing, having just his fifth outing over fences, is trained by Jonjo O’Neill for owner JP McManus, the team successful with Synchronised, as well as with Mini Sensation in 2002, and it is easy to see why punters have latched on to him. There are, however, negatives concerning the eight-year-old and they come from within his own stable.

A suspicion that Upswing might not handle the going is understandable. But O’Neill has also called Upswing “soft” in the past, while one of his riders once doubted his resolution in a finish; not ideal attributes for such a war of attrition.

Cogry was doing all his best work at the finish at Cheltenham, another in a series of largely pleasing efforts since trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies switched him to fences last winter. A stout young stayer, he does impress as the type who will produce the necessary true grit when called upon.

Emperor’s Choice and Mountainous, the most recent winners of the race, have already proved beyond doubt that they have what it takes. No horse has won this event twice since Bonanza Boy in 1988 and 1989, but there is confidence behind these two under conditions they positively relish.

A contagiously upbeat Aidan Coleman, who drove Emperor’s Choice to victory over Benvolio in last season’s thriller, wants the ground to be as atrocious as possible without the meeting actually being abandoned.

Also optimistic, Richard Lee – who, since Mountainous peaked at Christmas 2013 has handed over the training licence to his daughter, Kerry – is hoping for going “on the bottomless side of bottomless!” That wish, at least, should be granted.