Dissecting Wales’ semi-final defeat by South Africa: Where did it go wrong for Warren Gatland’s men?

After Wales’ World Cup campaign was brought to a heartbreaking end in Yokohama, losing 19-16 to the Springboks, we take a closer look at the details which ultimately settled this match

Injuries cost Welsh dearly

Wales have been desperately unlucky with injuries. Josh Navidi and Liam Williams were ruled out of the tournament last week, while Jonathan Davies and Hadleigh Parkes both headed into the semi-final carrying lingering injuries. It made for less than ideal preparation, not just in the sense of sapping Welsh morale but fundamentally limiting the way in which Gatland’s men could take on the Springboks.

Many suggested in the wake of defeat that Wales should have been more ambitious, more adventurous in their approach, but the reality is that they lacked the personnel to deploy such a game plan. Take into account the absence of Gareth Anscombe and Taulupe Faletau – both of whom were never part of the equation from day one – as well as the injury sustained by George North before the break, and it’s easy to see why Wales were so muted at times. They simply didn’t possess the star-factor needed to unpick their stubborn opponents.

Wales get sucked into slogfest up front

It was a true war of attrition. There was none of the thrill and rush of Saturday’s semi-final. This was a grinding, bone-crushing slogfest that drained every kernel of willpower from both sets of players.

But in attempting to match South Africa for their physicality, Wales were always going to be taking a risk. The sight of Tomas Francis, no shrinking violet, being steam-rolled by Duane Vermeulen early on in the match was a painful reminder of what the Welsh were up against.

Among the forwards, Wales struggled to break the South African gain line. It’s in matches such as these where the dynamism of Faletau would have provided Gatland’s side with the momentum to take the fight to the Springboks. But, instead, it felt like the Welsh were knocked back upon the point of each impact.

Although the likes of Aaron Wainwright, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty were certainly capable of competing at the breakdown – the Welsh turnover count was six to the Springboks’ three – it was out in open play, with the ball in hand, where Wales’ pack struggled to find a way through. This meant the platform was rarely provided for play to be sent out wide at pace and with the intention of catching their opponents on the back foot.

Wales play to South Africa’s strengths

Gatland’s men were far too willing to kick away possession. Doing so proved counterproductive and played to South Africa’s strengths. The high ball has always been a key component to Wales’ game but against the Springboks it came undone.

With Williams out of the picture and North subbed off before half-time due to injury, it made little sense for the Welsh to rely so heavily on the aerial approach. But with the forwards struggling up front, and given the limitations of Parkes and Davies in puncturing the South African defence, it seems the men in red had run short of options. A total of 36 kicks were made from hand, one less than the Springboks’ own count.

It might for a tedious sight, and at times felt like Wales were attempting to avoid defeat rather than secure victory. Ultimately, it meant the South Africans were rarely forced into adapting their own tactics to that of the Welsh game plan. Wales were far too happy to play the match as dictated by Rassie Erasmus’ men.

Biggar and Patchell fail to deliver

On a night where the full range of talents at Handre Pollard’s disposal were laid bare under the Yokohama lights – the composure, the controlled guiding of the game, the exceptional kicking – Wales’ own fly-halves looked mediocre in comparison.

Dan Biggar offered very little in the way of creativity. There was no spark or urgency in his passing. It was all too conservative, too rigid. Although he matched Pollard’s kicking, he certainly didn’t match his vision or ability to control the flow of play.

Rhys Patchell’s introduction failed to have the desired effects too. Normally more free-flowing and experimental than his teammate, the Scarlets fly-half was similarly anonymous, kept quite by the South African defence. He’ll also be left to rue the decision in going for that drop-kick attempt when he did. A couple of more phases of play and metres gained could have made all the difference. Instead, Patchell’s effort in the closing stages of the game, with the scoreline at 16-16, fell short and wide, thus handing possession back to the Springboks.

Another World Cup semi-final ends in heartbreak for the Welsh (Getty Images)

Fine margins settle it

This was by no means a contest that the Springboks outright deserved to win. The post-match statistics, if anything, would suggest that Wales were the dominant side: they made more runs and passes; they won more mauls and rucks; they enjoyed a greater share of possession and territory.

But as the case with Test matches of this nature, it’s often the fine margins which settle it. A dropped ball here, a missed tackle there, a misplaced pass or kick. “It was nerve-racking at the end and I must say that losing the previous four matches against them it could have gone their way again,” said Erasmus after the win. “I thought those last few minutes they might pull it through again and I think (there was) a little bit of luck on our side.”

In the days to come, Wales’ players will no doubt re-live the game in its entirety, scrutinising those key details that went against them. That the scoreline stood at 16-16 with five minutes to go shows you how finely balanced this contest was. In many ways, that makes the defeat even more galling. It really could have been Wales who emerged victorious in Yokohama.