Jonathan Davies: Thomas makes doubts grow stronger

Three-match suspension for target of unacceptable provocation a severe blow to Wales

It will be impossible to prevent the shadow of Gareth Thomas falling over today's events at the Millennium Stadium, especially if Wales lose and their defeat can in any way be traced to his absence. Some may even take it further and suggest that ruling him out of three games could have an effect on the outcome of the tournament itself. That's a bit too dramatic, but there is no way you can estimate the consequences for him or his country.

I think this ban would have been harsh whenever it was imposed. It is difficult to comment when you haven't heard all the evidence, but from what I have heard a heavy fine would have been sufficient for his senseless action. Had it happened in October, the punishment would not have appeared so severe. It's the timing that carries the cruelty.

It will be dismissed as mere bad luck that his offence and trial occurred just before the Six Nations, and that the disciplinarians could not be held responsible for the importance of the month they suspended him for. But what sort of justice is it when the severity of a sentence depends on the time of year you commit the misdeed?

What grieves me further is that none of the men who sat in judgement has played rugby at a high level, and so they can have no conception of the provocation top players have to endure. Even to have a former player as adviser to the panel might have helped their insight into what prompted Trevor Brennan and Thomas to react so angrily.

In polite circles, perhaps it is acceptable to put up with insults to your mother, but in the heat of a rugby encounter normal reactions are sometimes hard to maintain. Unacceptable, but understandable. I once played against my hometown club, Llanelli, at Stradey Park when my wife was critically ill. Someone in the crowd shouted: "I hope your wife dies." I took no action, but had I been close enough to identify him, I can't promise I wouldn't have reacted.

Playing at Halifax once, I had so much abuse from one spect-ator that I invited him to meet me behind the stand after the game. I waited but he didn't turn up.

It annoys me that no one takes any action against the spectators involved. Paying to get in surely doesn't give anyone the right to hurl provocative abuse at a player.

Whatever the rights and wrongs, Wales have to play on regardless, and the loss of Thomas could hardly have come at a worse time. They are without two top outside-centres in Tom Shanklin and Sonny Parker, and their two first-choice wings, Shane Williams and Mark Jones, while Gavin Henson's form puts him out of contention. The genuine strength that makes the Welsh back division a match for anyone has been sadly stretched.

We know that Hal Luscombe has been playing very well for Harlequins and that Chris Czekaj has the ability to handle this big step. And in the centres, James Hook is extremely talented and Jamie Robinson has played well for Wales. But you wonder how they are going to cope with Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy. I would like to have seen Dafydd James in the squad, because there will be a need for bigger men.

My other main concern is in the back row. Alix Popham and Ryan Jones are both playing very well but they are both No 8s and what you need, especially against Ireland, is an out-and-out blindside flanker at No 6. It is a question of balance and I fear that the Ireland coach, Eddie O'Sullivan, has spotted this and called on the services of Simon Easterby, who is an expert No 6.

Martyn Williams and David Wallace will have a battle royal at openside but I fear that Ireland will dominate the blindside. No offence to Popham and Jones but, like Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard for the England football team, they may not gel together.

Yet though my belief in Wales has suffered because of absentees, in Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones I feel they have the best half-back partnership in Europe.

The choice of Chris Horsman and Gethin Jenkins at prop signals the intention to take Ireland on up front. Since they will probably struggle in the line-out this is a good idea, and even with a depleted side Wales can make a game of it.