Eddie Jones: Gatland is walking a dangerous road as mind games could propel Ireland to glory

Calling the shots

Isee Warren Gatland has generated some controversy ahead of the climactic Six Nations game in Cardiff by talking of his Welsh players' "dislike" of the Irish. It was an intriguing comment, especially in light of Warren's own history of coaching in Ireland, and he clearly made it with a specific aim in mind – to get under the opposition's skin, to distract and destabilise them as they go in search of a first Grand Slam in more than six decades.

It's not the first time a coach has played mind games before a big occasion: you could write a whole book on the history of this stuff between England and Australia alone. But the pre-match wind-up can cut both ways, and it may be that Warren has done Ireland a favour by saying what he said when he did. This Grand Slam thing must weigh heavily on the Irish. How could it be otherwise, given that they are in touching distance of history? By presenting them with something else to think about, Warren may just have eased some of the pressure accompanying them on their short trip across the water.

Of course, Ireland would find it easier to chase the Slam in front of their own supporters at Croke Park, but I give them a strong chance at the Millennium Stadium. Wales seem to me to be treading water at the moment: their two stellar players out wide, the full-back Lee Byrne and the wing Shane Williams, are not having the impact that made them the talk of the town before Christmas, and now that teams are double-hitting the one-off runners around the ruck and slowing up the ball, the rhythm and tempo of the Welsh game is not quite there.

Ireland will win a good deal of possession today, and while I'm very surprised at their decision to replace the scrum-half Peter Stringer with Tomas O'Leary – O'Leary is a brilliant rugby player but not yet a Test-class half, while Stringer is completely reliable in terms of positioning and service – I can see Ronan O'Gara, very much the key figure, kicking a good deal from first-phase and winning the territorial contest. The Welsh are very aggressive in defence off line-outs, but much softer off scrums. This is where the Irish will attack them hard.

If they do find their way to the holy of holies, two men in particular will have earned maximum respect: Paul O'Connell and Brian O'Driscoll. O'Connell has been terrific all tournament – he is a very fine forward indeed – while O'Driscoll is showing increasing mastery of a wide range of midfield skills. I'm really not trying to be funny here, but he reminds me in some ways of the magnificent All Black centre Tana Umaga, with whom he tangled so notoriously on the Lions tour of New Zealand four years ago. Like Umaga, O'Driscoll initially made his name as an exhilarating runner; like Umaga, he has aged well, adding bits and pieces to his game so successfully that he can now play across positions with equal facility. I don't know whether he'll retain the Lions captaincy for this summer's trip to South Africa – O'Connell is another obvious candidate – but I do know this: the Lions will not hesitate to play him at inside centre if they feel he can hurt the Springboks more in that role than in his customary position of outside centre. That makes him a player of very considerable value.

One fine midfielder who seems to be on the way down is Frenchman Yannick Jauzion. He wasn't alone in playing poorly against England last weekend – Sébastien Chabal proved, beyond argument, that he is not an international back-row forward – but Jauzion's drop-off in pace is far more dramatic than anything O'Driscoll has suffered, and he has not compensated well. By pairing him with Mathieu Bastareaud, the French saddled themselves with a centre partnership miles too slow for the job, and it was one of the principal reasons they found themselves in strife.

England did some good things, but I suspect they'll find today's game with Scotland far more of a dogfight. France looked semi-interested in the first half at Twickenham, although they pulled themselves together to some effect after the interval. Scotland are always interested – always pumped-up and determined, tough and gritty. I can see England getting a result, but I'll be surprised if they win by more than seven points.

Both sides are no better than so-so at the moment. Italy are worse than so-so, the French cannot string two decent performances together and Wales have slipped off their level.

Only Ireland have threatened to fulfil their potential during this competition, and then only in patches. It's an accurate reflection of the tournament we've seen. Yet there will be no shortage of tension and passion today, and that's what makes the Six Nations special.

In terms of rugby quality, the southern hemisphere Tri-Nations is probably up a notch. In terms of the event, the Six Nations wins, almost every time.