O'Driscoll in line for Lions letdown

Grand Slam-winning captain unlikely to be given armband in South Africa

(GETTY IMAGES)

Rugby captaincy at international level is no laughing matter, even at the best of times. In Lions year, it can be positively hellish. Ask Steve Borthwick of England, who has had the critics clamouring for his removal all season and will face more of the same if, as many expect, he fails to make the cut for this summer's British Isles tour of South Africa when the squad is announced this afternoon. Ask Ryan Jones of Wales and Mike Blair of Scotland, who have seen their form disappear through the floor at precisely the wrong moment. Daft as it sounds, you might even ask Brian O'Driscoll.

Yes, this is the same O'Driscoll who, barely four weeks ago, led Ireland to a first Grand Slam in more than 60 years. He did it from the front, too, scoring a campaign-saving try against England in Dublin and then dragging his side over the line, in more ways than one, against the Welsh at the Millennium Stadium. It is difficult – nay, impossible – to imagine how anyone could have a stronger claim to the Lions role. Yet in the minds of Ian McGeechan and his fellow coaches, it appears another Irishman, the lock Paul O'Connell, has made the better case.

Twelve years ago, when the Lions last roamed Springbok country, McGeechan asked a similarly substantial second-row forward – a chap by the name of Johnson – to run the show. The coach felt there was considerable value in having a captain the size of Table Mountain hanging around outside the South African dressing room in the minutes before a Test match, looking the biggest of the home players square in the eye and peering down at the rest. McGeechan has played his cards very close to his chest this time, but the indications are that he has not changed his view one iota.

This is desperately hard on O'Driscoll, a proven leader who, thanks to some recklessly rough treatment dished out by a couple of All Blacks in Christchurch four years ago, feels he has an entire career's worth of unfinished business on the Lions front. Unlike his countryman, who played poorly on that tour and failed to rip up so much as a sapling during the last World Cup, the Leinster centre has produced much of his best rugby on the biggest stages. Not to put too fine a point on it, he is also one of the sport's true hard-nuts. Will the Boks really be more intimidated by O'Connell than by O'Driscoll? If so, more fool them.

At least O'Driscoll will get to travel. The chances of his fellow Six Nations captains joining him on the plane are very much in the balance. Jones, who faced the All Blacks in '05 as a rookie loose forward and performed with such energy that he would have been the only Lion with a cat's hope in Hades of being picked for a combined New Zealand-British Isles XV, is not the player he was back then. He is not even the player he was last autumn.

Blair, meanwhile, started the season as a hot favourite for the Test scrum-half position, partly because it is considered beneficial to have a Scot in the team somewhere and partly because he was the best No 9 in the home countries. He is not the best now, by a very long chalk; as Chris Cusiter demonstrated during the Six Nations, he is not even the best in Scotland. Should he get this trip ahead of the brilliant Welshman Dwayne Peel or the resourceful Englishman Harry Ellis, he will be fortunate indeed.

Of the three "will he, won't he?" national captains, only Borthwick will have a legitimate beef if the selectors turn elsewhere. There are many who feel less than inspired by his body language – he has about him a lugubrious air – and it is true to say ball-carrying is far from his strongest suit. But he is a Trojan-like worker, an outstanding analyst, and, to some, a highly effective leader. "Steve is the best captain I've played under by so far, it isn't even close," said one international recently.

What is more, he is a brilliant operator in the very area the Springboks pose their greatest threat: the line-out. No one in the European game constructs and dismantles line-outs as capably as Borthwick, and as the South Africans are likely to run the world's best second-row pairing, Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield, together once again, the dismantling work will be as challenging as it is crucial. (Remember the World Cup final in Paris two years ago? England left Borthwick out of their squad, and their line-out was duly shredded.)

But then, if the selectors are capable of ignoring O'Driscoll's captaincy claims, they are capable of most things. Only seven times in rugby history has a Lions tour coincided with a Grand Slam. The Welshmen "Boxer" Harding and John Dawes were rewarded for their leadership in the championship with the Lions' top job, as was the Englishman Bill Beaumont. Of the others, Wavell Wakefield of England and John Gwilliam of Wales were unavailable to the Lions, while in 2005, another Welshman, Gareth Thomas, was unable to make the start of the tour.

The magnificent O'Driscoll looks like being the first Slam-winning captain ever to be denied the Lions captaincy by selectorial choice. It's a cruel world.

Late entries: Five who may yet make squad

Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues and Wales)

He is just a boy from Gorseinon, but as Lewis Jones precociously demonstrated in New Zealand half a century ago, boys from Gorseinon are not the worst. Halfpenny's performances over the last fortnight have confirmed him as a rare talent. His wing's pace, allied to his kicking game, would be of value.

Jamie Roberts

(Cardiff Blues and Wales)

Twice the size of Halfpenny, but similarly off the radar until the Blues' recent surge of cup form. The Springbok centres will be big, strong and direct. Roberts, a medical student who understands the meaning of pain, can dish it out and mix it with the best of them.

Tomas O'Leary

(Munster and Ireland)

No scrum-half in the British Isles has caught the eye quite so often as the hurling enthusiast from Cork. A regular in the Grand Slam-winning national team, his contribution to Munster's increasingly impressive defence of the Heineken Cup has propelled him up the pecking order.

Dwayne Peel

(Sale and Wales)

Out of favour with Wales since moving to Sale for a spell in the Guinness Premiership, the half-back from Carmarthen is nevertheless under consideration for a second Lions trip. He played all three Tests against New Zealand in 2005 and was one of precious few tourists to escape with reputation intact.

Rory Best

(Ulster and Ireland)

Hooker is a weak position for the Lions, with Ross Ford of Scotland failing to kick on this season and two of the new generation – Dylan Hartley of England and Richard Hibbard of Wales – struggling for game time at international level. Best is no showboater. Instead, he is hard, durable and reliable.