UFC on Fox 21: Demian Maia and Carlos Condit vie for title shot in competitive welterweight division

UFC welterweight and commentator Dan Hardy looks ahead to this weekend's welterweight contest between Demian Maia and Carlos Condit in Vancouver

Maia is likely to charge Condit to the fence early on (Getty)

Two linchpins of the congested welterweight division face off this weekend, in what will likely establish the next man in line for a title shot. Both veterans of the sport, Demian Maia and Carlos Condit have 35 fights between them inside the Octagon. With the belt changing hands again recently, we have Tyron Woodley at the top of the rankings, but there is a fine line between the title holder and the next four or five guys in the division. At welterweight we have seen a real battle for supremacy, ever since Georges St Pierre abdicated the throne, and with these two in the mix, the turbulent conditions are far from over.

Johnny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler stood above the rest, and battled back and forth. Both held the belt for a time, until Woodley claimed it from Lawler at UFC 201 one month ago, with a huge right hand to the chin. As Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson demands his shot at the new champion, the next two assassins lie in wait. But before they can rightfully challenge for the welterweight gold, they must go through each other. In my opinion, the game plan for both men in this bout is transparent. We have seen so much of both fighters, that it’s no secret where their strengths are.

Condit, a long range striker with mean elbows and a diverse submission attack, will have to keep this fight at kickboxing range. Demian Maia is one of the top three Jiu Jitsu practitioners in the whole sport. A highly qualified world champion in the grappling art, his smothering ground attack is too much for many to withstand. After a lengthy campaign at middleweight, which saw him challenge the great Anderson Silva over five rounds at UFC 112 back in 2010, he moved to welterweight and has looked very dangerous, going 8-2 since making the cut to a lower division.

It is highly likely that he will charge Condit to the fence almost immediately. Standing at distance would not be recommended, although Maia’s striking is greatly improved, the experience and unpredictability of Condit would surely be too much. In the clinch range Maia is strong. Although Condit has excellent takedown defence and hasn’t been submitted in 10 years, Maia is a different animal on the ground. Once he is clamped onto you the only way to free yourself is to defend until the bell or tap out. It is suffocating, and some of the toughest in the sport have cracked under his pressure.

If Condit can stay standing for the first round, it could frustrate Maia, forcing his heart rate up and making him over-reach for takedowns. This is where Condit’s counter-striking comes into play. He has a varied skill set, as do all of the fighters under the tutelage of Mike Winkeljohn, in New Mexico. This offers him a multitude of options when a tired fighter is exposing themselves to attack. At range, and even in the striking clinch battles, Condit comes out on top. And with elbow strikes that could crack a coconut, Maia had better be wary when closing the distance.

Should Maia be able to drag Condit to the floor, or force him up against the fence, it will then become a war of attrition. Can Carlos maintain his efforts of defending the submission attack and scrambling back to his feet? Will he eventually wear down and succumb to the strangle hold of the Brazilian constrictor? Many have, and as this is a main event fight, there will be 25 minutes of survival for one man or the other, depending on range. The question is, who will control that range? When that is answered, we ask, can the defending fighter survive long enough to turn things around?

It is an intriguing match-up, headlining a card filled with interesting bouts, and will really demonstrate the depth of talent in the sport today. Former lightweight champion, Anthony “Showtime’ Pettis, will make his featherweight debut against another Brazilian neck-hunter in Charles Oliveira. Also, MMA sweetheart, Paige VanZant returns to action, as she faces the scrappy Australian, ‘Rowdy’ Bec Rawlings. And, opening the main card, a ‘Fight of the Night’ rematch sees Joe Lauzon square off against Jim Miller one more time.

Watch UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Condit live on BT Sport 2 from 11pm BST on Saturday 27th August, or watch the Early Prelims 9:30pm BST on UFC Fight Pass