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The NFL season may still be just over two months away, but in this article we post our early pre-season team rankings. Our rankings are half art, half science, statistically based with a touch of experienced intuition taking into account off season player and coaching staff movements.
After crunching the numbers and taking player movement into account, our ratings are converted to a points advantage for each team. A team with a plus mark is above average, a minus mark below average with an average team earning a mark of 0.0.
So for example, the New England Patriots are rated first with a rating of +6.7 meaning they are considered 6.7 points better than an average NFL team. At the other end of the table, the Arizona Cardinals have a rating of -7.1.
If the Patriots were to play the Cardinals today, the Patriots would be considered 13.8 points to the better. If the game were played in New England, we would add the standard 3 points for home field advantage, giving us a predicted margin for the game of New England by 16.8 points. If the game were played in Arizona, we would add 3 points for home field advantage to the Cardinals, making the predicted margin New England by 10.8 points.
Once we have determined each teams rating, we can play out the entire NFL season schedule and come to our own expected win totals for each team. Of course, when there is only a matter of points separating a top half team from a bottom half team, the balance of good or just plain bad luck can determine much of a team’s fortunes across the span of an entire NFL season.
NFL Draft 2019: First RoundShow all 33 1 /33NFL Draft 2019: First Round NFL Draft 2019: First Round NFL Draft 2019: First Round
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.01 Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB (Oklahoma) Kyler Murray will replace Josh Rosen as the starting QB in Arizona
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.02 San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, edge (Ohio state) Nick Bosa missed his senior season at Ohio State but shone at the Combine
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.03 New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT (Alabama) Quinnen Williams is a highly-rated defensive prospect
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.04 Oakland Raiders: Clelin Ferrell, edge (Clemson) Clelin Ferrell is an elite edge rusher
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, linebacker (LSU) Devin White of LSU was a tackling machine in college
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.06 New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB (Duke) Daniel Jones of Duke is a well-considered QB talent who may lack arm strength
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.07 Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Allen, edge (Kentucky) Josh Allen of Kentucky is a highly-rated defensive end
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.08 Detroit Lions: TJ Hockenson, TE (Iowa) TJ Hockenson of Iowa is considered one of the best tight ends in years
TJ Hockenson of Iowa is considered one of the best tight ends in years
NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.09: Buffalo Bills Ed Oliver, DT (Houston) Ed Oliver is a freak athlete and a disruptive interior lineman
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.10 Pittsburgh Steelers (from Denver Broncos): Devin Bush, linebacker (Michigan) Devin Bush of Michigan is a sideline-to-sideline linebacker who will start from week 1
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.11 Houston Texans: Jonah Williams, offensive tackle (Alabama) Jonah Williams played offensive tackle in college but may be a guard at NFL level
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.12 Miami Dolphins: Rashan Gary, edge (Michigan) Rashan Gary is one of a pack of talented edge rushers this year
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.13 Miami Dolphins: Christian Wilkins, DT (Clemson) Christian Wilkins helped Clemson to a College championship
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.14 Atlanta Falcons: Chris Lindstrom, G, Boston Lindstrom was a surprise pick at 14
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.15 Washington Redskins: Dwayne Haskins, QB (Ohio State) Dwayne Haskins shone in his sole season as a starter at Ohio State
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.16 Carolina Panthers: Brian Burns, edge (Florida State) Brian Burns (99) is an undersized pass rusher who blows away people with speed
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.17 New York Giants: Dexter Lawrence, DT (Clemson) Dexter Lawrence failed a drugs test in 2018
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.18 Minnesota Vikings: Garrett Bradbury, G/C (NC State) Garrett Bradbury is considered one of the top interior linemen in the draft
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.19 Tennessee Titans: Jeffery Simmons, DT (Mississippi State) Jeffery Simmons would have been a top-10 pick if he hadn't injured his knee in February
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.20 Denver Broncos (from Pittsburgh Steelers): Noah Fant, tight end (Iowa) Noah Fant is very good receiving tight end in a strong class at the position
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.21 Green Bay Packers (from Seattle Seahawks): Darnell Savage, S, Maryland Savage should boost the Packers offense
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.22 Philadelphia Eagles (from Baltimore Ravens): Andre Dillard, T, Washington State Andre Dillard is one of the best offensive tackles
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.23 Houston Texans: Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State Howard is an essential upgrade for the Texans
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.24: Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs, running back (Alabama) Josh Jacobs is the first running back taken in the 2019 draft
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.25 Baltimore Ravens (from Philadelphia Eagles): Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma Marquise Brown is the most explosive receiver in the draft
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.26 Washington Redskins (from Indianapolis Colts): Montez Sweat, LB, Mississippi State Montez Sweat shone at the Combine and is one of the most athletic prospects
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.27 Oakland Raiders: Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State The Raiders completed their first round with Abram
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.28 Los Angeles Chargers: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame The Chargers added another piece to a stacked roster
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.29 Seattle Seahawks: TJ Collier, DE, TCU Seattle had an eventful first round
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.30 New York Giants (from Seattle Seahawks (from Green Bay Packers)): Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia Deandre Baker of Georgia is one of the best defensive backs this year
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.31 Atlanta Falcons (from Los Angeles Rams): Kaleb McGary, T, Washington McGary will boost the Falcons' offense
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NFL Draft 2019: First Round 1.32 New England Patriots: N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State Harry was a surprise pick by the Patriots but will boost Tom Brady
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Below are the projected standings for each NFL division based on our projected win totals for the 2019 NFL season.
But we’re not so much concerned with how each team will perform this season. What we are interested in is how our expected win totals compare to those posted, in this case, at bet365.
So without further ado, here are our win total over under bets for every team this coming NFL season.
Odell Beckham Jr has brought glitz to the Browns (AP)
BEST BETS Cleveland Browns
Projected wins: 8.3
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/6
Minnesota Vikings
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/7
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 10/13
Green Bay Packers
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/ 6
Arizona Cardinals
Projected wins: 4.7
Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 5/7
Quinnen Williams will be a New York Jet (Getty Images)
GOOD BETS Washington Redskins
Projected wins: 6.4
Bet: Over 5.5 wins at odds ⅝
New York Jets
Projected wins: 7.5
Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 5/9
Buffalo Bills
Projected wins: 7.2
Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 10/13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected wins: 5.7
Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds ⅚
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected wins: 5.6
Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds ⅝
The Rams face a tough ask to come back after losing to Brady and the Patriots (Getty) (Getty Images)
DECENT BETS Los Angeles Rams
Projected wins: 11.1
Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds 4/ 5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected wins: 7.7
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 20/27
Chicago Bears
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds ⅚
Indianapolis Colts
Projected wins: 8.8
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds Evens
Detroit Lions
Projected wins: 5.8
Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds 20/27
ONLY FOR A FLUTTER... Carolina Panthers
Projected wins: 8.0
Bet: Over 7.5 wins at odds 5/6
Tennessee Titans
Projected wins: 7.8
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 4/6
Kansas City Chiefs
Projected wins: 10.9
Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds Evens
New Orleans Saints
Projected wins: 11.0
Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds Evens
Philadelphia Eagles
Projected wins: 9.7
Bet: Over 9.5 wins at odds 10/13
Los Angeles Chargers
Projected wins 9.1
Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds Evens
New York Giants
Projected wins: 6.6
Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 6/5
Atlanta Falcons
Projected wins: 8.1
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 20/21
Baltimore Ravens
Projected wins: 8.2
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/13
San Francisco 49ers
Projected wins: 8.0
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/13
Houston Texans
Projected wins: 8.1
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/11
Dallas Cowboys
Projected wins: 8.5
Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 6/5
Denver Broncos
Projected wins: 7.5
Bet: Over 7.5 wins at odds 6/5
Miami Dolphins
Projected wins: 5.3
Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 5/7
New England Patriots
Projected wins: 11.8
Bet: Over 11.5 wins at odds Evens
Oakland Raiders
Projected wins: 5.5
Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 11/10
Seattle Seahawks
Projected wins: 8.6
Bet: Over 8.5 wins at odds 20/21
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