Wales to copy Scots' slick example

Scotland's one-month metamorphosis from desperate no-hopers, unable to beat even Western Samoa or Italy, to prospective Five Nations champions defies rational explanation beyond the fairly obvious: that they were never as bad as they were painted. We say much the same thing every year.

On the other hand, as they make the third step along the Grand Slam road in the 100th Wales-Scotland match (Wales have won 54, Scotland 43) at the Arms Park this afternoon it would be equally rational to suggest they are not - not yet awhile, anyway - as good as they are painted either.

As they say so themselves, this is not to denigrate their unexpected achievements in beating Ireland and more especially France. But the manner in which the Scots outran the French set an unlikely, utterly exhilarating example of how this game can - should - be played and if that has the fortunate corollary of providing entertainment we are all twice blessed.

The Scots are nothing if not canny. In the euphoria that followed the French match a strategic managerial plan - one imagines almost as detailed as the one the players take on the field - has been in operation to reduce expectations. Why, Jim Telfer has even been heard to propound the theory that his team's performances to date have been quite deeply flawed.

"For young players, they have grown up very quickly and through their own efforts everything has been rosy so far," he said yesterday as the Scots completed training in the shadow of the Severn Bridge. "But the downturn will come sometime."

The manager's plan is to play down the suddenly inflated Scottish sense of anticipation, basing his caution on Scotland's abysmal record in Cardiff, where they have won only four times since the war and only six in the 113 years of this inter-Celtic rivalry.

"It tends to be the nature of a Celtic race to go from one extreme to the other without much justification," he said. "I don't think the hype is all that justified. We've only had two matches and to make a mark in world rugby you have to have a lot more consistency in winning than that."

That other Celtic race, the Welsh, know exactly how he feels. One of Kevin Bowring's tasks as Wales coach since the game at Twickenham a fortnight ago has been to temper his own people's expectation. "Consistency in winning", to use Telfer's expression, has been unknown to Wales since 1979, remembering the 1988 Triple Crown and 1994 championship were isolated successes.

Still, a fresh start has been made with a young side willing, but not yet as able as the Scots, to play a rugby of breathless movement in which players seek space rather than bodily contact. In other words the sort of rugby to which England, next up at Murrayfield in a fortnight, continue to "aspire".

But as yet Wales, unlike Scotland, are a collection of talented individuals as opposed to a team and whether they put a stop to the Scots' progress will depend on how far the team-building process has gone in the brief time since the English defeat. Telfer, we may be certain, has seldom if ever experienced fear in his life but this is the word he uses to describe his apprehensions for today.

"The Welsh have always produced natural, gifted players," he said. "Recently they haven't been able to put them all together at the senior level and get a team that can be consistently winning. I fear the individual skills of players who come up through a tougher route than ours in club competition and more recently in European competition."

Wales would gladly oblige him but their capacity to turn good intentions into hard achievement is completely unproven. Too many times in too many years too much consolation has been taken when a combative performance has reduced a likely rout into something more honourable.

As a means to an end Bowring has sought to break the Welsh game down to its most basic essentials: roughly speaking, the forwards winning the ball and the backs using it, which he says also happens to be the Scottish way. "Playing that style suits Wales and will help produce winning rugby as well," he said. "The Scots have adopted that approach and I admire their efforts in trying to play that way."

So much so that Jonathan Humphreys, the Wales captain, explicitly wishes to do the same. "It's no fluke they are playing good rugby and we are hoping to imitate that type of rugby," he said. This is sincere flattery but for it to work out as Humphreys intends presupposes Wales have the athleticism and dynamism among the forwards to produce loose ball of quality and in quantity. And that is still a doubtful proposition.

Prodigies' burden, page 23

WALES v SCOTLAND

at Cardiff Arms Park

J Thomas Llanelli 15 R Shepherd Melrose

I Evans Llanelli 14 C Joiner Melrose

L Davies Neath 13 S Hastings Watsonians

N Davies Llanelli 12 I Jardine Stirling County

W Proctor Llanelli 11 M Dods Northampton

A Thomas Bristol 10 G Townsend Northampton

R Howley Bridgend 9 B Redpath Melrose

A Lewis Cardiff 1 D Hilton Bath

J Humphreys Cardiff, capt 2 K McKenzie Sitirling County

J Davies Neath 3 P Wright Boroughmuir

G O Llewellyn Neath 4 S Campbell Dundee HSFP

D Jones Cardiff 5 G Weir Newcastle

E Lewis Cardiff 6 R Wainwright Watsonians, capt

H Taylor Cardiff 8 E Peters Bath

G Jones Llanelli 7 I Smith Gloucester

Referee: J Dume (France). Kick-off: 3.0 (BBC 1)