Are your Valentine’s chocolates costing more this year? Blame Trump and a weak supply chain

Chocolate makers such as Mondelez and Hershey hedge cocoa months in advance, so they still pay above market rates, limiting how much savings reach shoppers

Skyrocketing Valentine’s Day chocolate prices are turning gift-giving into a bittersweet affair for lovers across the U.S., even though global cocoa prices have dropped sharply from record highs.

A recent study by online loan marketplace Lending Treefound that boxed chocolate assortments have risen 11.8 percent on average since last February, with some products nearly doubling in price.

There are a couple of factors experts say are responsible - the Supply claim and policy coming from the White House.

Not many commodities have dropped as sharply this year as cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate. After hitting record highs that really hurt West African exporters, prices have been falling for months. A few years of tight supply had pushed cocoa costs to eye-popping levels, peaking at $10,000 per metric ton in May, far above the $2,500-$3,000 range seen for most of the 2010s, Axios reports.

While supply has begun to loosen, pushing prices downward, nearly 30 percent over the past month alone, much of the chocolate available to consumers today was manufactured with cocoa purchased at these record-high rates.

Tariff relief has helped Hershey and Ghirardelli, but brands such Cadbury, Valrhona, Nestlé, and Lindt still face a 15 percent added cost, driving average boxed chocolate prices up 11.8 percent since last Valentine’s Day (Getty Images)

Large chocolate makers hedge their cocoa purchases months in advance to protect against market swings. As a result, companies such as Mondelez, maker of Cadbury and Toblerone and Hershey are still paying above current spot-market rates. This lag between commodity prices and retail costs limits how much manufacturers can pass on savings to shoppers.

Consumers may see relief in the future seasons rather than this Vanetine’s Day, Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put suggested to investors this week, Axios reports.

“There’s not a lot we can do anymore, but 2027 certainly will benefit from this,” Van de Put said.

Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner said last week that last year’s price increases didn’t fully cover “cocoa price inflation in 2026,” according to the outlet. He added that if cocoa prices continue to fall, the company may not need to raise prices further in the future.

Trade policy has also played a significant role in the price of Valentine’s Day chocolate. Some chocolate manufacturers say inventory purchased under Trump‑era tariffs added to their cost burdens.

The administration lifted tariffs on cocoa beans, paste and butter in mid-November, giving companies such as Ghirardelli and Hershey some year-end relief. However, imported brands such as Cadbury, Valrhona, Nestlé, and Lindt still carry an additional 15 percent cost, according to the Progressive Policy Institute, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C.

Despite these higher costs, consumers are largely absorbing them, and Valentine’s Day spending is expected to rise by $1.4 billion, showing that demand for chocolate remains strong even amid tariffs, weather-driven shortages and modest declines in confectionery employment.