Bill Weld: The simple, sad reason why he will never defeat Donald Trump

It's a nice idea for cable news hosts to discuss, but it ignores the makeup of the GOP primary electorate and basic US history

The path to taking the GOP nomination away from Donald Trump in 2020 is exceptionally narrow, and it certainly won't happen with former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld.

Weld announced his candidacy for the 2020 GOP presidential nomination today, saying in a statement, "Ours is a nation built on courage, resilience, and independence. In these times of great political strife, when both major parties are entrenched in their 'win at all cost' battles, the voices of the American people are being ignored, and our nation is suffering."

Weld is right. Arthur Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute, said in a recent interview that "fringes" control the governing of the country right now. Fifteen per cent of either side controls a raging debate, and the other 70 per cent want something better.

The question isn't whether or not Weld would make a better president than Trump. And the problem for Weld isn't that he lacks the measured, thoughtful and nuanced personality that would make for a boring, albeit welcome, refrain from what we've experienced since Trump officially announced his candidacy in 2015.

The problem is for Weld is politics, nothing more.

Weld is the prototypical northeastern Republican: fiscally conservative and socially moderate. To gain acceptance from the Libertarian Party for his run with former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson in 2016, he required a change of heart on gun control but not much else — and that's why he'll have so much trouble in a GOP primary.

Weld could undoubtedly win the New Hampshire primary. The voters have a fondness for local candidates as well as those who run against the grain, such as Pat Buchanan in 1996 and John McCain in 2000. But after that, prospects for Weld go from bad to worse.

Starting with the South Carolina primary, it is difficult to imagine him winning any of the southern or midwest primaries and caucuses, and with a condensed schedule, the bulk of delegates required to secure the nomination will get parceled out by the end of March.

In 2016, Ted Cruz banked his chances of winning the nomination by sweeping deep southern states early in the contest, grabbing up enough delegates that would require Donald Trump or Marco Rubio to win a clean sweep the rest of the way.

Ted Cruz didn't win a single primary in the deep south. Donald Trump won all of them and flipped the script, making Cruz the guy playing catch-up, and he couldn't make it work.

If Ted Cruz, who campaigns in GOP strongholds like a Baptist preacher, couldn't beat Trump in the deep south, who in their right mind thinks Bill Weld can do it?

Weld, like Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and former Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, get touted as viable candidates to face off against Trump by the political commentariat and cable news hosts who like to spend time discussing the paths to victory but tend to ignore the makeup of the GOP primary electorate and the historical precedent that sets.

It's as if people learned nothing from watching what happened in 2016. Admittedly, I was one of those who thought the suspension of Trump's campaign was just around the corner. Instead, he kept on winning.

It's the voters in those states in the deep south and midwest who make up the rock-solid foundation Trump enjoys within the GOP primary electorate. They will crawl over glass to make sure Trump gets the nomination again in 2020.

There's nothing wrong with an incumbent facing a primary challenger. It's healthy for the republic to keep political leaders on their toes. If Bill Weld or several other challengers can do that with Trump, more power to them.

It all comes down to raw politics, and in that case, Weld is at a terrible disadvantage right from the start. The notion Weld can knock Trump off is a pipe dream that will get served up by plenty of people who are trying to convince themselves more than anyone else it can happen. But it won't.