Boris Johnson vs Michael Gove will be the most spectacular political battle in years

Both men face a trust problem among Tory members. Boris is well liked, but can Gove ever recover from his 2016 act of fratricide?

“We’re looking at our next prime minister,” one admirer of Jeremy Hunt told me, as we watched the foreign secretary practise his lines for a Tory leadership election.

“We have to recognise our job is not just to unite our party but unite the country,” Hunt told a reception for the Onward think tank at last autumn’s Tory conference. He called for “a true Brexit for the 52 per cent but also a generous Brexit for the 48 per cent”. My ears pricked up at that; the latter was something Theresa May never did, to her cost.

Now the Tory contest is for real, Hunt’s middle-of-the-road position is inevitably being tested by rivals on either side of it.

He is accused of “flip-flopping” after his stark warning yesterday that the Tories would be “annihilated” if May’s successor opts for a no-deal exit from the EU, because to stop it, MPs would pass a vote of no confidence in the government and trigger a general election. This surprised Tory Eurosceptics who had put Hunt, a Remainer turned born-again Brexiteer, in the no-deal column after he said this outcome would be better than no Brexit, and gave some the impression he was ready to back no deal to combat Nigel Farage.

Yet Hunt’s prediction the Commons would block no deal was vindicated by John Bercow’s intervention today. To no one’s surprise, he will not vacate the speaker’s chair during the Brexit crisis. More importantly, he will ensure MPs get a chance to prevent no deal – even if the default position is that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October.

Hunt’s realism is not only honest but makes tactical sense. The Tory runners are broadly in two camps: current cabinet ministers who are wary of no-deal – Hunt, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock and Rory Stewart – and Brexiteers who resigned from the cabinet and countenance a no deal – Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Andrea Leadsom – who all make naive promises they cannot keep about renegotiating the withdrawal agreement, and Esther McVey, who wouldn’t try. At their Brussels summit last night, the 27 EU leaders again made clear May’s deal would not be changed.

Of the other serious contenders, Sajid Javid has avoided the pivotal no-deal issue so far. Some lesser known candidates, such as James Cleverly and Kit Malthouse, might pull out before the first in a series of ballots among Tory MPs next month; they are putting down a marker for the future, and hoping to land a cabinet job.

Hunt was never going to win the support of hardline Brexiteers. But by appealing to Tory MPs worried about no-deal, he might make the shortlist of two chosen by the parliamentary party, who go into a ballot of the party’s 120,000 members. Then Hunt could tell the members that crashing out would be a better outcome than no Brexit. As the “cabinet candidate”, he would probably be up against either Johnson or Raab from the “ex-cabinet” faction.

Yet I have a feeling we might be heading for a Shakespearean fight to the death between Gove – who appears to be picking up some potential Hunt supporters – and Johnson, who has become the frontrunner while keeping a low profile by his own standards.

The stars seem aligned for Johnson, despite the news that he is summonsed to court over the £350m a week EU cost claim; Farage’s triumph in the European elections was heaven-sent. The mood among many Tory MPs is that the election is Johnson’s to lose. As one put it: “The person who can defeat Boris is Boris.” If he doesn’t trip himself up when the gaffometer starts to run, he should win.

A run-off between Johnson and Gove would be the most remarkable twist yet in the Brexit drama. Vote Leave’s two victorious figures would resume gladiatorial combat three years after Gove, who was chairing Boris’s first leadership campaign, knifed him in the front on the morning of his launch and instead ran himself. A wounded Boris was running ahead of May but pulled out, a decision he later had doubts about. The two Leavers somehow allowed a Remainer, in May, to claim the prize.

Boris vs Gove this year would be spectacular. Both would be asked some awkward questions about 2016. Does Gove, having seen Boris up close and shambolic then, still stand by his judgement that he “cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead?” What does Boris think about Gove’s treachery, and previous admission that he himself was not up to the job of prime minister?

Such a contest might come down to a matter of trust. Both men have a trust problem. Has Gove’s impressive performance since returning to government allowed enough Tories to forget his act of fratricide? Can the party forget Johnson’s two unimpressive years as foreign secretary, and install him in an infinitely more difficult job?

Many voters might not trust either of them but will not get a say. They can only entrust Tory members to make the right call.