Ministers are terrified Theresa May will lead us to a no-deal Brexit – but who is left to stop her?

The responsibility will have to fall to backbench MPs to take control of the process and steer the UK away from a 12 April crash-out

EU leaders have headed off a disastrous crash-out by the UK next Friday. Theresa May cannot claim much credit: there are growing – and very worrying – signs, she is prepared to let the country leave the EU without a deal in order to “deliver Brexit” – and cling on to her job.

For the first time, some ministers believe May will opt for a no-deal exit if she cannot persuade the Commons to approve her withdrawal agreement – an increasingly remote prospect. At a midnight press conference in Brussels, May pointedly refused to say what her second choice would be if MPs reject her deal again. She ruled out one option – revoking Article 50 to scrap Brexit – even though more than 3 million people have signed a petition calling for this to happen.

She does not want a long extension, as the UK would then have to take part in the May European parliament elections. Unless she can miraculously conjure up a majority for her agreement, the only other option is no deal.

It’s now a real possibility that May will try to go down this scary route. The EU summit only moved the date back two weeks to 12 April. Although the EU collectively, and Ireland in particular, does not want a crash-out then, member states including France believe they have to contemplate one. “No deal is better than a bad extension,” one diplomat told me.

May said she sincerely hoped to leave with “a” negotiated deal. But what she meant was “my” deal. It’s my way or the highway, again. The prime minister offered an ounce of contrition to MPs after her extraordinary attack on them in her televised address to the nation on Wednesday. But she doesn’t do sorry. She merely acknowledged that MPs, like her, are “frustrated” and “have difficult jobs to do”. She only uttered these words because her criticism of “politicians”– funny that, I thought she was one – had backfired so spectacularly. Any Labour MP tempted to vote for her deal should remember her Trump-like diatribe against their trade, just for doing their job of holding the government to account. How could they possibly support her now?

May has shot herself in both feet. Her flirtation with no deal means hardline Eurosceptics who would prefer a clean break have no incentive to switch sides and support her agreement. Indeed, two Brexiteers – Ben Bradley and Steve Double – who previously backed the PM’s withdrawal agreement have moved in the opposite direction, sensing a no-deal departure is in sight. Another triumph for May.

With even some natural allies fearing that May is out of control, it will fall to backbench MPs to take control of the process and steer the UK away from a 12 April crash-out. It must happen next week. On Monday, a cross-party group of backbenchers including Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Sir Oliver Letwin and Dominic Grieve will press for indicative votes on other Brexit options on Wednesday. Cabinet ministers must insist that these votes are not whipped, or they will be meaningless. We might see a consensus emerge for a customs union, or even a Norway-style arrangement inside the single market too. It was disingenuous for May to claim the alternatives to her deal have been rejected; she has deliberately denied MPs proper votes on them. MPs, and the speaker John Bercow, must make these happen next week.

May might now delay her third vote on her deal until Thursday, or even later. If MPs express a preference for a softer Brexit on Wednesday, she would try to use that as a stick with which to browbeat Eurosceptics into backing her deal.

She might even offer to stand down soon in a last desperate attempt to push her agreement over the line. Although she would hate to utter the words, she may conclude she has little to lose. There are growing signs that her party is about to push her out of the door anyway. So why not offer to jump first? It could persuade 30 Eurosceptics to support her deal.

May seems to have conveniently forgotten that only last week, the Commons voted by 412 to 202 not to leave without a deal. Perhaps the only numbers she cares about are that 188 Tory MPs opposed this motion – in other words, did not want to rule out no deal – while 112 supported it.

As ever, it’s personal survival and party unity disguised as our old friend “the national interest”. Pro-European ministers and MPs are not going to force May out because they fear getting someone worse. But the Eurosceptics would do it without blinking. So May has finally picked a side – them – and, if necessary, a no-deal exit.

MPs must stop that, and defend the real national interest, before it is too late.