Do most people still want to leave the EU?

A key feature of the Brexit debate is how fluid everything is. The more extreme the political climate, the more polarised people become

The most recent polling by BMG Research for The Independent certainly appears to show people are moving towards a position where they think Britain should stay in the European Union.

But like all things Brexit, the issue becomes more complicated when you begin to dig under the surface, or simply ask “how?”.

Data gathered in early December as Theresa May travelled the country trying to sell her deal, showed 52 per cent of people answering “remain”.

That number has steadily increased since the late summer, from around 47 per cent in September, breaking into a majority only in recent weeks as the politics have become really sticky.

But other polls are less clear, with one by ComRes for the Daily Express undertaken shortly before the BMG study, showing that “remaining a full member of the EU” had 44 per cent support, while 45 per cent were opposed.

Even the BMG poll had other factors suggesting the answer is more complex than a simple in or out dynamic.

For example, when given an array of positions – remaining a full member, a Norway-style status, a May-style approach, a Canada-style deal or no deal – the two winning ideas are remaining and a Canada-style deal, both on 26 per cent, with others scoring between 13 per cent and 21 per cent.

It means that if there were a second referendum it would be a bold person to say they could predict the result.

And therein comes the second complication. Even if we accept that there is something of a shift to remain, polling does not show there has been a mirroring shift in support for a new referendum – which many believe is the only route to reach a remain outcome.

BMG polling shows support has been level between 46 per cent and 48 per cent for many months, but never quite breaking into a majority. The ComRes poll shows support at 40 per cent and opposition at 50 per cent.

The discrepancy could be explained through the idea that, even though many people think the country should stay in the EU, there are some in that number who don’t think it can, or that remaining is politically the best course of action.

In turn that may suggest that while people accept there could be an economic hit to the country by leaving, there are other factors at play in making the decision.

The ComRes polling for example, asked whether it would be “humiliating if the UK ended up staying in the EU” with 50 per cent saying yes and 39 per cent saying no.

Asked if they would be prepared to sacrifice some future economic growth to “complete Brexit properly” in the same survey, 45 per cent said yes and 32 said no.

A key feature of the Brexit debate is how fluid everything is. Given the major week of turmoil ahead, with May likely to lose the key vote on her deal and go back to Brussels to try and negotiate again, with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit looming, the picture could be very different very soon.