The UK economy will shrink for the first time in years this summer – and the uncertainty won’t stop there

This will be a period of extreme unease in fiscal terms, and the recovery from it could be even worse towards the end of the year depending on where global trade relations stand

Expect a modest rise in consumption and a continuing shift to online purchasing (PA)

It looks at least an even chance that the UK economy will have shrunk in the second quarter of this year. If it does, that will be the first negative quarter since 2012. Of course, the data isn't available until early August – so it is far too early to be sure. But a survey of economists by Bloomberg suggested that the economy will have contracted by 0.1 per cent. Not terrible, but not great either. How worried should we be?

I think the first thing to be clear about is that Brexit is only a marginal element in all this, though I am afraid both sides of that debate will cite the economic slowdown as support to their cause.

Leavers will say that this is the result of our failure to leave the EU, while Remainers will say that, at last, the negative impact of the decision to leave is showing through. Both views are naive. Brexit may have slightly boosted first-quarter growth as some companies stockpiled goods, and that will have unwound. The continuing uncertainty may also have delayed some investment decisions. It would be odd if it hadn’t. But it also looks as through the German economy may too, have contracted during the second quarter, suggesting that the slowdown is much more widespread.