Conservative Party Conference: It won't get any better than this for David Cameron

The Prime Minister finally appears to have the time and space to return to 'compassionate Conservatism'

David Cameron and his wife Samantha milk the applause after his keynote speech

Today was as good as it will get for David Cameron. On the face it of it, he is at the very height of his power. The Opposition is in disarray; he has a Commons majority and full, five-year parliamentary term to tackle Britain's deep social problems" -- the mission he set himself in an impressive Tory conference speech. It showed how he is determined to colonise and expand the political centre ground. Much of it could have been delivered by Tony Blair or Nick Clegg, especially his goal of “true equality”.

After being rudely interrupted by the financial crisis and need to cut the deficit, Mr Cameron now appears to have the time and space to return to “compassionate Conservatism”, his ticket when he won the Tory leadership 10 years ago.

Yet his opportunity is much more limited than it looks. By speaking of his “decade” in Downing Street and “starting the second half” of his premiership, Mr Cameron restated his determination to serve a full second term -- even though he foolishly promised this spring that he would not stay on beyond the 2020 general election.

No one at the Tory conference in Manchester really believed he will still be PM in January 2020, as he will have to give his successor time to woo the voters before the election in May that year. Cabinet colleagues believe he will step down in the spring of 2019, handing the new leader the platform of the October party conference. Mr Cameron’s exit could be much earlier: if the public votes to leave the EU in the referendum to be held by 2017 after he has recommended staying in, power would drain from him immediately.

By maintaining the fiction of a five-year term, the Prime Minister hoped to prevent a “guessing game” about his departure timetable and jostling for position among those who wish to succeed him. But the beauty contest began in Manchester this week.

Theresa May and Boris Johnson played to the Tory gallery on Europe, raising great expectations on controlling migration from the EU to Britain that will be impossible for Mr Cameron to fulfil when he renegotiates our membership terms. Nicky Morgan is on manoeuvres, challenging Ms May for the right to be the woman on the Tory ballot paper. George Osborne, the front-runner, showed the scope of his ambition in his wide-ranging conference speech.

By next year’s Tory conference, the jockeying for position will be even more evident. Others may enter the race so they are not left behind. Mr Cameron will find that the clock ticks very fast, as Mr Blair did when he pre-announced his departure after enormous pressure from Gordon Brown. Cameron aides blame the media for “playing games” and “moving on to the next story” –the succession—when the story of his second term has not yet been written. But it was Mr Cameron who unwittingly fired the starting gun.

The Prime Minister's speech showed how he wants to cement his legacy on domestic policy. But the longer they stay in Number 10, prime ministers tend to become more embroiled in foreign affairs and Mr Cameron may prove no exception.

Europe will dominate his first two years. The Tory conference showed it will be very hard for him to maintain Cabinet discipline on such a divisive issue. Syria looms large, with the linked problem of Russia. Unforseen stuff will happen.

Even when the Prime Minister can focus on domestic policy, it will not be plain sailing. The rumblings in the margins of the Manchester conference about the cuts to tax credits next April will get louder when MPs return to Westminster next week. Strangely, Mr Cameron chose not to defend the policy in his speech. Some tweaking is inevitable, despite the denials. Further painful spending cuts for the next few years must be agreed by November 25, when Mr Osborne will unveil the results of a government-wide review. Other messy decisions loom --on whether to build a third runway at Heathrow Airport, which could affect Tory prospects in next May’s election for London Mayor.

Mr Cameron has finally earnt the admiration of his party. But from now on, things can only get worse.