Daily catch-up: George Osborne, not down and certainly not out

The Chancellor's chances of the succession reassessed; PMQE (Prime Minister's Questions on Europe); and another genuine shop name

Mark Burton gives you Spruce Springclean, window cleaner, another for my collection of Genuine Shop Names.

µ Matthew d'Ancona makes the case for George Osborne over Boris Johnson for the Conservative succession:

Things are looking good for Boris in his campaign to become “World King”, and may continue to do so. But never forget: Osborne didn’t earn his reputation as a formidable strategist by accident.

Nor was yesterday's YouGov poll as bad for the Chancellor as I thought. I updated my post yesterday on the YouGov poll after I had looked at the tables because, although Johnson's support went up after his Brexit declaration, so did Osborne's. In fact, in a run-off between the two, Osborne closed the gap by one point, although he was still 18 points behind. (Unusually, this one-point shift is significant, because YouGov reinterviewed the same people. There could still be some error, either panel effect or an unrepresentative sample in the first place, but the changes are real and not the product of sampling error.)

Indeed, if you look at the qualities of the candidates, Osborne does well on the important ones: understanding the economy, taking tough decisions and good in a crisis. Johnson does better on the fluffier ones: media performer, in touch with people, uniting the party and winning elections. (Did someone say winning elections? How 1997.)

On the other hand, opinion polls are a snapshot not a forecast. As Mike Smithson ‏pointed out, this is what the YouGov poll of Tory members showed seven weeks before the ballots went out in 2005:

Kennth Clarke 33%

David Davis 28%

David Cameron 17%

Liam Fox 8%

Malcolm Rifkind 4%

µ So long as people disagree over how to order our affairs, there will always be a fascination in politics. Not necessarily in the exchanges between a prime minister and a leader of the official opposition, however, as yesterday's Prime Minister's Questions proved. The only awkward moments for David Cameron came on the question of Europe, a subject Jeremy Corbyn cannot ask about. One question from his own side, from the above-mentioned David "Twenty-Eight Per Cent" Davis, and one from Labour MP Barry Sheerman.

Davis asked what Cameron sharply observed was the "single transferable question". The Speaker called Bernard Jenkin, who wasn't there, and improvised brilliantly by calling Davis, another anti-EU Tory, instead. His question was transferable in another sense, in that it had originally been asked by Jonathan Portes: why won't HMRC publish the figures for National Insurance numbers, which do not seem to match the immigration statistics? Cameron didn't answer.

Barry Sheerman, MP for Huddersfield, where Harold Wilson was born 100 years ago, asked:

As the Prime Minister struggles with certain elements in his party over Europe, does he ever think back to an inspirational and visionary Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, who faced similar difficulties but stood up to the rebels in his own party and secured a yes vote for staying in Europe? Will he join me in celebrating the centenary of Harold Wilson’s birth next week? Across all parties we should celebrate that great, innovative Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister: I do feel a natural sympathy for anyone who has had this job, irrespective of the side of the House they are on. I think that Harold Wilson did some very important things for our country. I know that the hon. Gentleman has a particular connection to him. I wish his family well on this important centenary. I am sure that we approach things in different ways, but one thing that we would have agreed on is that Britain’s future is better off in a reformed European Union.

µ I had forgotten that I had disagreed with Jeremy Corbyn about the Iraq war on the Nicky Campbell show on BBC 5 Live in January 2011. Thanks to Mark Lott ‏for digging out the audio. Oliver Kamm is excellent in the first segment. Corbyn comes in at 10 mins 28 secs.

µ And finally, thanks to Glenny Rodge ‏for this medical bulletin:

"Couldn't undo the buttons on my jumper so tried pulling it over my head but got it stuck.

"Now sitting in A&E waiting to see a cardyologist."

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