Election catch-up: fiscally responsible Ed Balls versus George ‘Magic Money Tree’ Osborne

Plus the difference between phone and online opinion polls

1. Good bit of looking-glass politics from Labour (above), rightly attacking the Conservatives for making unfunded spending promises.

This is going to cause the Tories problems for the next three weeks because every time one of them is interviewed they are going to struggle to say where the money will come from.

Most voters won’t focus on the detail but may be unsettled by the lack of grip and clarity. The real answer is that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts are bound to be wrong: if the economy grows faster than expected the Tories can afford it and if it doesn’t they’ll borrow more than they say now.

The Tory calculation is cynical. They assume that, despite the reversal of roles – Labour’s manifesto promises are all fully funded – most voters still assume that the Conservatives would be more careful with taxpayers’ money. Which may be true, but it doesn’t help if you can’t safely put George Osborne, Sajid Javid or Theresa May up for interviews.

2. Philip Cowley was disappointed to note that neither main party’s manifesto promised to repeal or amend the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. I condemned Ed Miliband’s treacherous U-turn on Labour’s previous policy of reducing the five-year fixed term to four when it happened.

3. Curb your cynicism: politicians do tend to keep their manifesto promises, according to Tim Bale.

4. Important comparison of phone and online polls, by Adam Ludlow of ComRes. He says the Tories have been ahead in phone polls all year. More from this from Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report (and YouGov). All very interesting, but we have no idea which method is more accurate. There is nothing intrinsically superior about phone polls as anyone bothered by PPI cold-callers can testify. Mike Smithson points out that four online polls were closer than the one phone poll to the 2012 London mayoral result.

5. It was a crushing disappointment to see Garry Trudeau, creator of Doonesbury and one of my lifelong heroes, blaming the victims of the Charlie Hebdo killings. Padraig Reidy wrote a fine counterblast for Little Atoms.

6. And finally, a big welcome back for Chris Heaton-Harris:

“I used to have a fear of hurdles, but I got over it.”