Andy McSmith: Where will the election leave Tony Blair?

The PM stands shoulder to shoulder with Bush. So what if Kerry wins?

Does it matter to Tony Blair who wins on Tuesday? In one sense, no. As people in his own circle point out, the British Prime Minister will always be welcome in Washington, whether he is visiting President Bush or President Kerry.

In other ways, though, the result will reverberate through British politics. By the end of this week, Mr Blair could be in the awkward position of seeing the President he backed so loyally throughout the Iraq conflict being thrown out of office after a campaign dominated by Iraq.

Or else he faces a prospect that could turn out to be worse in the long run, of being inextricably linked to a President whom the British public deeply distrust - as today's Independent on Sunday poll shows.

When John Kerry accused George W Bush of being "isolated" during the second of their television debates, the incumbent leapt in to invoke the name of Tony Blair as evidence that he has friends abroad.

It was a reversal of the normal pattern of Anglo-American politics, that Labour Prime Ministers prefer Democrat Presidents, while Tories prefer Republicans. After the Thatcher-Reagan love-in, John Major unwisely allowed Tory officials to involve themselves in George Bush Sr's re-election campaign in 1992, straining his relations with the successful challenger, Bill Clinton. Tony Blair then lost no time in establishing himself as Mr Clinton's soulmate.

The return of the Bush dynasty four years ago was consequently greeted with unbridled glee in parts of the Conservative Party, where it was supposed that Mr Blair would now be cold-shouldered in Washington, and there would be a correspondingly warm welcome for the pro-Republican Tory leader, Iain Duncan Smith. Unfortunately for him, Mr Bush's advisers saw where American interests lay.

Until this month, Downing Street privately expected Mr Bush to win, and made no attempt to reopen the usual contacts with the Democrats. When Mr Blair visited Washington in April, he pointedly did not make time to see John Kerry. In August, the Leader of the Commons, Peter Hain, visited the USA and was reported to have hinted in private that he and his fellow ministers wanted Mr Kerry to win.

Meanwhile, the Tories tried to reopen the old links with the Republicans, only to receive a blunt message from Mr Bush's adviser, Karl Rove, that Michael Howard would not be granted a meeting with the President because of his criticisms of Mr Blair's conduct of the Iraq war.

About 10 days ago, there was the first indication that the Blair entourage might be hedging its bets, when the Prime Minister's pollster, Philip Gould, turned up at the Democrat campaign headquarters to meet Mr Kerry's campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill.

The meeting is being seen by the Democrat senator's aides as an olive branch from Mr Blair.

A source close to the Prime Minister stressed that no one directly employed by the Government, as a minister or political adviser, had been involved in the presidential election, on either side. He added: "We have scrupulously kept out of this election. You've got to be careful. Whatever happens, the truth is that the Prime Minister is always going to have a special relationship with the US President."