Christopher Bellamy: Saddam's regime looks likely to end with a whimper

Tikrit, north of Baghdad. Sounds like something out of Joseph Conrad. The scene for the final battle ... and, once again, mercifully but almost incredibly, no substantial Iraqi resistance so far.

US forces were reported last night to be advancing into the northern Iraqi city, Saddam Hussein's home town. US Special Operations Forces have been moving into the city from Kurdish territory in the north, while the main thrust arrived from the south, with marines entering the outskirts. If President Saddam is to make a final stand, it is here.

If there was ever a time for what is left of his regime to put up a really vicious fight, or for the use of chemical and biological weapons to try to defeat the Americans or maul them horribly, it has passed. The regime is defeated. But if there was ever a time for a futile but dramatic gesture, it is now. In addition, the 4th US Infantry Division is heading directly for Tikrit. That may be a bait to lure Saddam. Why? The 4th Infantry, as yet not tested in battle, is the so-called digital division, the most hi-tech division in the world. Its digital battle technology is as yet untested in real war. It might be an appropriate target. But so far, nothing.

After the capture of central Baghdad last week, US military attention switched to northern Iraq. To Kirkuk, Mosul and Tikrit. The oil-rich city of Kirkuk fell to Kurdish peshmerga, stiffened by special forces, but has now been largely vacated in response to US pressure reflecting Turkish concerns. Mosul, Iraq's third city, after Baghdad's five million and Basra's 1.2 to 1.3 million, fell next. Tikrit is the only Iraqi city of any importance left.

Out of six Iraqi Republican Guard divisions – the only ones at perhaps 80 per cent of their full strength, about 10,000 troops each, maybe two survived the assault on those formations around Baghdad. Ten Iraqi regular army divisions, at maybe half strength – say five or six thousand men each – were reported to be in northern Iraq.

The pre-war numbers of Iraqi forces given in Western intelligence reports have proved to be meaningless. Reports from Baghdad indicate that senior Iraqi officers in the Republican Guard tried to get their men to fight but failed. The BBC's correspondent there interviewed a Republican Guard colonel who told him he had held an informal conference with his officers around a camp fire and concluded regretfully that they had no choice but to catch a bus home.

The Special Republican Guard dedicated to defending Saddam – four brigades or about 20,000 men – has also largely disappeared. Some appeared in Basra to encourage other Iraqis to resist and there are reports of a few fighting in Baghdad. But again, they have not featured nearly as prominently in the battle as expected.

So why should the Iraqis fight for Tikrit? Despite the speculation otherwise, I suspect that President Saddam is still in Iraq. Neighbouring countries such as Syria have been warned not to accept as refugees any close relatives of his, any senior Baath party officials, or any of the 55 characters on the English-language playing cards distributed by the Americans.

There might still be a substantial fight for Tikrit. The US military might be disappointed if there is not. But I suspect – and I hope I am right – that Saddam Hussein's regime will now end, not with a bang, but with a whimper. After all, there is enough to do restoring order and rebuilding a great nation that has suffered horribly.

Christopher Bellamy is professor of military science and doctrine at Cranfield University