Fergal Keane: Despite Ealing, the era of Irish violence is over

'The only logical conclusion is that the perpetrators of the London bombing stand accused as war criminals'

In the long and bitter conflict on the island of Ireland one lesson has shone eternal: violence pays. Go back as far as you want in the old quarrel and you will find some group or government getting its way by force of arms. The original plantations were won by fire and sword and the rebellions against them were crushed by the same combination. The ousting of imperial Britain from the south of Ireland was achieved by a combination of violence and politics ... a lot of violence.

The current dispensation in Ulster came about after a brutal mini-war when the establishment, after years of vowing it would "never negotiate with terrorists", turned around and did precisely that. It didn't just negotiate, it oversaw a deal which resulted in a former IRA man becoming Minister of Education at Stormont. Those with a limited knowledge of Irish history were shocked, but the Government and its partner in the Republic were being entirely consistent. Back in 1922, Michael Collins and his men killed everyone from country policemen to senior British commanders, but were sitting down with Winston Churchill and other cabinet members once Downing Street realised only Collins could deliver a peace treaty.

You could argue for years about whether violence was morally justified and about the poison it injected into our national life, but nobody would deny that it effected change.

So you can imagine the thought processes of the Real IRA as they assemble their bombs and scout London for targets. Why on earth should they be immune to that central lesson of Irish history? If the Provos were able to bomb their way to the table, why can't the Real IRA take it a step further and bomb the British out? In the claustrophobic world of the ultra-nationalist, a place where dissonant voices and counter-arguments are resolutely ignored, the belief that violence can win a total victory is still sacred.

It is self-evident, but worth stating, that the rights of civilians are ignored in these calculations. We are lucky – unbelievably lucky – that the bombing did not cause widespread civilian death and injury. Be assured the Real IRA would not have been worried had the attack resulted in another Omagh. No more than their soulmates who ran the wars of ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia, these "warriors" couldn't give a damn for the bloodied corpses that are the consequence of their actions.

The Real IRA wants the "Brits" out. What this would mean, in effect, is that the Protestant population of Northern Ireland, which cherishes a British identity, would have to accept a new all-Ireland dispensation imposed by force of arms. When the men offering you that deal are the ones who gave us Omagh and who have been shooting Protestant farmers along the border for decades, a little caution is undoubtedly wise.

The Real IRA and its political mouthpieces would have us believe that a warm place exists for Protestants in their new Ireland. The only enemy is the British military and the constitutional principle of consent. I attach the same level of sincerity to such statements as to Mr Karadzic's professions of tolerance for Muslims while he dropped mortars on bread queues in Sarajevo.

To put these characters in their proper context, think of ethnic cleansing. Think, too, of Primo Levi's powerful lines about the "bestial vice of hatred", and then remember the straightforward definition of men who carry out military operations intended to murder civilians. If we are to take the Real IRA at their word – that is that they are soldiers – then the only logical conclusion is that the perpetrators of the Ealing bombing stand accused as war criminals. The intent was to terrorise the civilian population of London, and the human rights community must view such attacks in the same light as the murderous activities of people like Arkan and his paramilitaries.

The Real IRA won't pay much attention, but we still need to remind them that the age of excuses and slithering justifications is long over. The organisation exists primarily to deliver "spectacular" attacks. Relentlessly infiltrated by the Irish police and denied access to the Provisionals' arms dumps, they are in no position to wage war on a regular basis. They fight for headlines, and Ealing has delivered them. But in terms of the Real IRA's stated goal – a United Ireland with no British presence – the old lesson has become worthless. In 2001, with a peace process in place, violence will not deliver. More Ealings will follow as may terrible civilian casualties, but the war has become unwinnable.

The secret war being waged against the Real IRA, by the Gardai in particular, gets far fewer headlines, but is far more significant. Slowly but decisively the organisation is being eaten away from the inside. There is a greater political will in the Republic to remove the gun from politics than at any time I can remember. So the Real IRA badly needs a political crisis. From the bar of the last-chance saloon they watch nervously, willing the peace process to collapse.

Such a crisis would suit them well, but even better would be a split within Sinn Fein provoked by the decommissioning of IRA weapons. Deep hatred flourishes for Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness in the Real IRA, and even a partial surrender of weapons would lead to renewed accusations of betrayal and a probable defection of some volunteers with their guns and Semtex.

Yet for all the danger, decommissioning is a step which Adams and McGuinness need to take. Both have shown courage and skill in steering the Republican movement away from the cult of violence, but it is time for them to ask what ultimately separates them from the Real IRA.

They have embraced a ceasefire. Both have said they cannot foresee a return to the use of violence. They acknowledge the principle of consent and have agreed to sit in a devolved administration within the framework of the current British state. For men raised on the frontline of the Troubles and imbued with the most fervent belief in a united Ireland, the journey has been momentous and difficult. We will have to wait for the history books to tell us (if they ever will) what kind of insults and threats were hurled at them when they decided to enter Stormont, and what language they used to keep most IRA members on board.

But one last link connects themselves with the Real IRA: guns and bombs. I don't know a single person involved in the process who expects a wholesale decommissioning of IRA weapons. But the idea that rust alone should take care of the arsenal is not plausible.

To borrow Nadine Gordimer's phrase: it is time for the IRA to make the "essential gesture". It only takes a small step and the IRA has proved itself endlessly creative in the past when making symbolic statements. It is still the most powerful private army on the island of Ireland and it can afford some generous creativity. The danger of defections to the Real IRA is real, as is the fear of renewed loyalist paramilitary violence. But neither provides a compelling reason to avoid doing the right thing. Nor does the talk of refusing to follow Unionist deadlines make any sense. It isn't Mr Trimble's deadline, but the demand of most of the people on the island of Ireland. Step away from the guns and become Real Peacemakers.

The writer is a Special Correspondent for the BBC