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Here we go again: it's time to play the sordid game of who's up, who's down

I suspect the days when cabinet reshuffles actually made much of a difference to a government's performance are long gone

Michael Brown
Tuesday 28 May 2002 00:00 BST
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It was brave – if a little unwise – of Patricia Hewitt, the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, to complain that she is working too hard, putting in over 70 hours a week for her £117,979 salary. She suggests that ministerial jobs should be split between two MPs with each taking control for part of the week. It was brave, bearing in mind that MPs have just bunked off for a record-breaking two-week Whitsun recess. And it was unwise as talk of a cabinet reshuffle gets under way. Most cabinet ministers are desperate to continue in their posts and there is a queue a mile long of MPs just waiting for the call.

As to quite how a Cabinet doubled in size would operate, Ms Hewitt is a little sketchy. But, in any event, she might just remember that she is also assisted by four ministers of state and three under-secretaries of state. If these were also to be "job shared", we would have a total of 16 ministers in Ms Hewitt's department. Picture how this might all work at the Department of Transport. Imagine the scope for mischief-making between Stephen Byers and his co-driver over who would take responsibility for all the cock-ups. "No, on the day Jo Moore sent the e-mail about burying bad news I was not on duty. That was when Mandelson was in charge."

Peter Mandelson's own entry into the fray does not, of course, envisage any kind of job-sharing with Mr Byers. But the very mention – by Mr Mandelson – of his own name in the frame is a clear indication that the annual reshuffle season has begun. According to one Labour MP, he is "hovering like a vulture" over the stricken Transport Secretary and confesses that he is ready to take over from Mr Byers. "I love being a minister; I love being in government – it was what I was put on earth to do."

I suspect that the days when cabinet reshuffles made much of a difference to a government's performance were over long ago. Whether it is John Prescott, Stephen Byers or Mr Mandelson at Transport, none is likely – in the short term – to make any appreciable difference to the travelling public for years to come. Yet in the next few weeks, Westminster will be consumed by stories and speculation that will drive the administrative machine in many governments into a state of complete inertia.

The truth is that there is a serious logjam at the top of the cabinet table that severely limits Mr Blair's scope for refreshing his team – even if it is deemed desirable. The Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, and the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, are immovable. Robin Cook, the Leader of the House, has carved out a niche for himself as the architect of Commons modernisation and is set in concrete as a permanent feature of this Government.

Mr Cook vacated the Foreign Office for Jack Straw who seems to have been somewhat overshadowed, by the Prime Minister following 11 September. Nevertheless, though some have suggested that Mr Straw has occasionally been ill at ease compared with his confident approach at the Home Office, this hardly seems, after only a year, a sufficient reason to move him elsewhere. Mr Straw's successor as Home Secretary, David Blunkett, is similarly secure and goes from strength to strength – albeit wearying sections of the Labour Party with policies more akin to Ann Widdecombe and William Hague. But he acts as a counterweight to Gordon Brown and has a sizeable following among the "spending ministers".

Somewhere down the middle of the batting order are the Brown and Blair clones – the likes of Andrew Smith, Alistair Darling, Alan Milburn, Geoff Hoon, John Reid and Charles Clarke. All these are classic machine politicians who know how to curry favour and are the classic staples of any Cabinet. Some of these may one day hit the really big time, while others (Mr Hoon?) may just fade away.

Of course, another limiting factor that constrains the Prime Minister is the "women" issue. Having set great store by the role of women in politics, he is obliged to ensure that the gender balance is maintained. At present there are seven women in his Cabinet. Clare Short heads the list in terms of ability and job security. With Mo Mowlam now out of the picture, Ms Short is top scorer with her "tell it like it is" approach. There would be riots in the streets if she were to go – but, in addition, her five years at International Development have been a triumph acknowledged across the political spectrum.

I worry for that other old warhorse, Margaret Beckett, at Environment and Rural Affairs. Mrs Beckett may one day suffer from simply having been around for ever – although her competence has rarely been in question. Incompetence, however, by Hilary Armstrong, the Chief Whip, could provide an excuse for a straightforward sacking and an opening for a thrusting junior minister knocking at the cabinet door. Helen Liddle plods along at the Scottish Office – surely she doesn't have enough work to clock up 70 hours a week – while Estelle Morris, at Education, and Tessa Jowell, at Culture, Media and Sport, are guaranteed indefinite cabinet employment for some time ahead.

The truth is that there will probably be, at most, only two departures. Surely Mr Byers cannot survive – although Tories are now recognising the importance to them of a wounded minister rather than a dead minister. The more Mr Blair hears that a growing number of Tories want Mr Byers kept in office – as a constant reminder of lies and spin – the greater may grow his courage to wield the axe. Some Tories would like him moved to Culture, Media and Sport, where they would enjoy seeing him making a mess of the national stadium and the National Lottery and the other horrors that this ragbag of a department has among its responsibilities to trip up ministers.

So if two get fired, who gets promoted? My money is on Peter Hain, currently at the Foreign Office, Paul Boateng, at the Treasury, or John Spellar, now at Transport. Looking at the rest of the junior minister pack, however, there are no obvious candidates although Douglas Alexander, the whizzkid minister at the DTI, looks a high-flyer a year or two down the track.

Of course, if the Prime Minister wanted to stop this wretched annual ritual of speculation, which is so dispiriting for ministers, he should take us all by surprise. Either announce now that he has no intention of making any changes this year or take advantage of the next fortnight and scupper our fevered articles by conducting the reshuffle immediately.

Robin Cook had the right idea when he spoke, last week, to the Hansard Society and suggested that the political process would be greatly improved if journalists concentrated on the policies and political process rather than on the personalities. The trouble is that this message needs to get through first to Labour MPs who cannot see a commentator in the lobby without leading him or her round to this sordid game of who is up and who is down. And Mr Mandelson's intervention has suitably stirred them all up.

mrbrown@pimlico.freeserve.co.uk

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