Take the plunge, Tony and Gordon. It's not so cold when you're in

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Tourists targeted in pro-euro push

Leading article: Let battle commence: the euro case must be made

For some reason, the minutes before a swim in a cold sea are much more painful and nerve-racking than the swim itself. Shall I get fully wet? Shan't I? How shall I feel when I do it? Ouch, my bloody toes are freezing! After such tortured agonising, the plunge into unfathomable iciness is almost a relief. As far as the euro is concerned, the Government has been tip-toeing around the edges of the sea for a long time now, occasionally going in as far as its ankles before running back to the beach hut for a reassuring whisky. The protracted tip-toeing is becoming increasingly painful.

As time goes by, every ministerial utterance on the euro, however logical, makes bigger and more destabilising waves. Tony Blair's enthusiastic comments on the euro during last week's Newsnight interviews were no more positive than those he has made on several occasions in recent years, yet they were portrayed almost as a declaration of war. The war proceeded to erupt the next day at Westminster over Stephen Byers's obvious assertion that a referendum Bill might be necessary in the next legislative session. Mr Byers will not be the last minister to put his foot in it over the euro. Others will state the obvious and, at some point, send the markets plummeting as well as generating fresh waves of hysteria at Westminster.

That is what is so dangerous about the long delay before a decision on the euro. We are at a similar stage to the early months of the last parliament when the markets started to oscillate wildly over speculation about the Government's intentions. In a terrible panic, Blair and Brown moved quickly to end all speculation in 1997 by ruling out entry during their first term. They are going to have to move quickly again if they do not want a similar frenzy to erupt in the next few weeks and months. There are signs that they are starting to move, that they are at least wading into the sea up to knee-height. Behind the scenes, Mr Blair's advisers are giving considerable thought not only to the timing of the referendum, but to the nature of the campaign itself.

Mr Blair's focus-group guru, Philip Gould, gives a revealing insight into these discussions in the latest edition of The Spectator, although he never refers directly to the referendum. Mr Gould proposes a "dramatic" change in the style of political campaigning in order to re-engage disillusioned voters. He envisages it as being "bottom up, not top down; local, not national; interactive, not one-sided; communication through word of mouth, not mass technology". These generalities are being applied specifically to the embryonic "Yes" campaign for the euro. Leading figures are contemplating a campaign in which there will be a lot of humdrum knocking on doors, public meetings and rough-and-ready interviews with the regional media.

The reaction to last month's Budget encouraged Mr Blair to look a little more boldly towards the intimidating sea. To the surprise of some in Downing Street, the risk-taking Budget has worked in the Government's favour. The significance of this cannot be overestimated. Before the Budget, virtually every policy – including the radical ones – had been implemented for defensive reasons, to prove the Government was competent, that it was not old Labour any more. Since the Budget, there appears to be a greater appetite in Downing Street for straight-talking leading to substantial announcements, instead of equivocal talking followed by no decision, followed by a pretence that a radical decision had been taken. As this newspaper reported the weekend after the Budget, Downing Street insiders were speaking robustly of new dividing lines and that Mr Blair was getting ready to put the case for the euro.

Not that he is ready yet. Mr Blair tends to be a single-issue Prime Minister, although the issue varies from time to time. The euro is not his big issue of the moment. His main focus is on the Comprehensive Spending Review which will not be completed until July. At which point he will be contemplating his holiday rather than the euro. That is why the brouhaha last week was partly misplaced. He is still testing the water.

It is only in the autumn that the single currency will come fully into view. At that point, Mr Brown's much-hyped economic tests will genuinely become an issue. That is odd. The tests were devised in 1997 for political reasons. They gave the Government cover at a time when it did not believe that a referendum was winnable. Mr Brown more or less cobbled them together during a taxi ride in New York. Almost to his own surprise, the tests have become a genuinely substantial factor. On this, there is not as much difference between Mr Blair and Mr Brown as is normally suggested. Mr Blair seeks his place in history, but does not want to go down as the leader who lost a referendum or who took Britain into the euro in a way that wrecked the economy. Mr Brown does not want his economic record jeopardised by entry, but he is not hostile to the euro. He knows Britain will be a member of the single currency at some point. The question is when. I do not believe either Mr Blair or Mr Brown have fully made up their mind, but it seems to me that there is as clear an answer now as there is ever likely to be in the future.

The Conservative Party is almost as unpopular now as it was in 1997. As a bonus, its leading members are scared of talking about the euro in case voters conclude that they are insane. Even last week, when the Government was getting into a terrible mess over the issue, shadow cabinet members declared "We want to talk about crime and hospitals. Don't mention the euro!". This will not last for ever. At some point the Conservatives will recover their nerve and a degree of popularity. Similarly, the authority of Messrs Blair and Brown will not always be high. Already, overblown stories in the media about sleaze have had an impact on how they are regarded. The longer they prevaricate, the more those stories will hit home. The economic case for the euro will never be clear and unambiguous, but there will almost certainly never be a better political opportunity than in the next year or so.

Mr Blair and Mr Brown should take the plunge. They should do so soon. Otherwise, they will lose control of what is happening. The frenzy of recent days over the Tranport Secretary's latest comments shows that they are already losing a grip and it will get much worse. The wait is getting hazardous. The swim into the unfathomable iciness will be a blessed relief.